Simon Rowlands: Sectionals cast doubt on Trumpet Major's Guineas claims

The success of Trumpet Major in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket on Thursday divided opinion regarding his chance in the 2000 Thousand Guineas in just over two weeks' time.

On the one hand, a winner of a recognised classic trial by 5 lengths conceding weight will understandably garner a high rating on form. On the other, he is likely to leave time enthusiasts a little cold, in terms of both his overall time of 97.44 sec and the sectionals which led to that.

Sectionals were more difficult to take in some instances on day two of the Craven Meeting than day one, due to camerawork, but they did point to the Craven being run at an overly-strong pace (it should be noted that the wind was against the runners on day one and with them on day two).

Trumpet Major was under pressure in fifth at halfway but swept through to win in style. However, sectionals late in the race showed the runners (even the winner) running slower than par and slower than most of the races elsewhere on the card.

Whether or not Trumpet Major is good enough to win a Guineas remains to be seen but the unmistakeable impression was that he may need a similarly strong pace and ease in the ground to reproduce this effort at a mile.

The resulting information can be viewed in a number of ways. Below you have the sectionals for the leader 3f out and the leader (i.e. winner) at the line, which is useful for gauging the pace of the race.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)
Race 1: 37.2 sec (102.6% finishing speed: pace bit on steady side)
Race 2: 35.9 sec (103.2% finishing speed: true pace)
Race 3: 36.0 sec (103.0% finishing speed: pace bit on steady side)
Race 4: 36.3 sec (103.9% finishing speed: steady pace)
Race 5: 36.9 sec (101.7% finishing speed: pace close to par)
Race 6: 36.1 sec (107.7% finishing speed: slow pace)
Race 7: 38.2 sec (101.7% finishing speed: pace bit on steady side)
Race 8: 36.7 sec (100.8% finishing speed: pace slightly quicker than par)

Next are the sectionals for the winners themselves, engineered from their margins back from the leader at the 3f pole, and what that translates to as a sectional time when married up with the overall race time.

COGITO: 37.0 sec (103.2%) 73 sectional time
BAILEYS JUBILEE: 35.8 sec (103.4%) 92 sectional time
VALBCHEK: 35.5 sec (104.4%) 103 sectional time
TELWAAR: 35.1 sec (107.5%) 110 sectional time
ESENTEPE: 36.8 sec (102.0%) 92 sectional time
STIPULATE: 35.6 sec (109.2%) 110 sectional time
MODEL PUPIL: 37.3 sec (104.1%) 99 sectional time
ES QUE LOVE: 36.7 sec (100.8%) 97 sectional time

Telwaar and Stipulate did much better - in time terms - than the result, while Model Pupil did a bit better than what was already a pretty good time.

DAY TWO (Thursday) (final 3f unless identified as 2f thus*)
Race 1: 34.7 sec (103.8% finishing speed: true pace)
Race 2: 35.0 sec (106.4% finishing speed: slowly run)
Race 3: 37.2 sec (99.7% finishing speed: true pace)
Race 4: 23.1 sec* (103.7% finishing speed: steady pace)
Race 5: 25.4 sec* (95.9% finishing speed: overly strong pace)
Race 6: 36.8 sec (100.2% finishing speed: pace bit on steady side)
Race 7: 25.2 sec* (97.3% finishing speed: strong pace)
Race 8: 36.0 sec (105.3% finishing speed: slowly run)

TASSEL: 34.6 sec (104.1%) 85 sectional time
MARINER'S CROSS: 34.9 sec (106.7%) 99 sectional time
ROUGEMONT: 37.0 sec (100.2%) 108 sectional time
MAYSON: 22.9 sec* (104.6%) 109 sectional time
TRUMPET MAJOR: 25.2 sec* (96.7%) 114 sectional time
QUESTIONING: 36.3 sec (101.6%) 97 sectional time
PERFECT STEP: 25.0 sec (98.0%) 80 sectional time
MAIN SEQUENCE: 35.6 sec (106.5%) 106 sectional time

The biggest mark-ups came for the Wood Ditton winner Mariner's Cross and the concluding handicap winner Main Sequence, neither of whom might have achieved much on the face of it but both of whom did so in the manner of useful performers.

An explanation of some of the processes involved in sectional analysis can be found HERE.