Sectional Debrief: Kempton, Wednesday July 3

One of the purposes of this series of debriefs is to identify occasions when sectionals assist in interpreting results in a way which might not be immediately obvious. There were some good examples at last night's Kempton all-weather meeting. 

For instance, one-on-one comparisons of the overall times of two races at the same course and distance can put people away. If one time is markedly better than the other, it may just be that one of the races was slowly-run, not that the better time was a good time in a wider context. The mile-and-a-half races at Kempton tell an interesting story, as the headline figures show: 

The maiden won by Astonishing was run in a faster time than the handicap won by Seal of Approval, despite the fact that the opposite could have been expected to be the case. Was the latter slowly-run? No. The finishing speed % of Seal of Approval's race was respectable. Indeed, the leaders in the two races got to the sectional in similar times. It was only from that point on that the first three in the maiden drew clear, not just of the rivals in their own race but, as it were, of the horses which ran in the later handicap. 

Seal of Approval actually did a lot of running from the sectional, which she passed in the region of 10 lengths behind the leader, and is better than the result. But we know for sure that she is a useful performer to win a handicap off a mark of 88. We did not know for sure the same about the first three in the maiden. We do now. 

Astonishing (three runs, trained by Sir Michael Stoute) gets a sectional rating of 98, as does Respect Me (much improved on switch to polytrack, trained by Saeed bin Suroor), while Shwaiman (progressive sort, trained by James Fanshawe) gets one of 96. The winner could get let in lightly in handicaps and be good enough for better races soon; the last two should not remain maidens for long.

The other particularly interesting race on the card was the juvenile won by Cornish Path, who came from some way back. Did she do well? Yes, she did: sectionals suggest she is in the region of 7 lb better than the result, whereas those behind her were not. She is another who could be underestimated in handicaps, but overall the form and time of this race does not merit her inclusion on the "to follow" list. 

A truly-run race resulted in a solid time in the opener, with Zhiggy's Stardust coming back slightly slower than par. The race won over same course and distance by Bosham soon after was disappointing in terms of overall time and sectionals; the first two in it are opposable next time.

The two-mile race won by Dark Ranger was a tactical affair, with a quick finish and Spice Fair shaping as well as anything in fifth. But it is probably best not to make many hard-and-fast conclusions in such circumstances.

The concluding handicap won by Shamdarley produced the fastest finish of all in absolute terms and should have suited horses close up. The winner was second turning in, while runner-up Silverheels was sixth and emerges as a 2 lb better horse on sectionals. Either way, Shamdarley may do well to follow up. 

The full list of "to follow" horses is: Astonishing, Respect Me, Shwaiman, Toronado, Hillstar, Space Ship, The Fugue (entered Jul 6), Big Break, Stencive, Labienus, Masquerading, Glorious Protector, Meaning of Life (entered Jul 4), Fiducia, Singersongwriter, Demonic

"to oppose":  Bosham, Surge Ahead, Shamdarley, Mubtadi 

Running totals after July 3rd (1 pt staked on "to follows", 1 pt risked on "to opposes", at Betfair SP, before commission): 21 successful bets from 43, +13.58 (+31.6% return on investment)