Sectional Debrief: Kempton, Wednesday August 28

I mentioned rules of thumb for interpreting pace visually - and sometimes incorrectly - in the post-Ebor debrief, and yesterday's meeting at Kempton provided a good example of something similar when looking at a race after the event. 

Conventional wisdom suggests a race in which the first three came from twelfth, ninth and tenth of 13 at the 3f sectional, while the first three at that point finished seventh, eleventh and twelfth, "suited" closers. As a rule of thumb, it has merit, but sometimes it is manifestly wrong, and one of those instances was the race won by Spiritoftomintoul. 

The finish was fast for a race run over two miles, and the finishes of the principals were particularly fast. The winner ran approximately 35.7s for the last 3f, which was, for instance, quicker than any horse ran in races 2, 3, 4 or 7 over considerably shorter overall distances. Far from benefiting from a pace collapse, the principals all deserve extra credit for making headway into a quickening pace. 

It is unlikely that Spiritoftomintoul, a lightly-raced horse who scored by a clear margin, will catch many unawares next time, but an official handicapper tied by end results rather than how those results were arrived at is unlikely to put him up enough to stop him being very competitive, and he is added to the sectional "to follow" list. 

The other stand-out performance in time terms was that by Marmalady in the opener. This is another lightly-raced decisive winner who is unlikely to be raised enough in the handicap to prevent her being very competitive next time. The overall time was notably good, and yet Marmalady finished strongly even in that context, recording about 34.55s for the last 3f. She also gets added to the sectional "to follow" list, while runner-up Brynford can be rated 4 lb better than the result, having come home nearly as strongly. 

Ajig's and Omnipresent's races resulted in quite quick finishes, but all of the principals in those races get marked up similar amounts once the sectionals have been crunched.

There were honest enough paces in the races won by Jazri, Ehtedaam and Trucanini, especially in the first-named. Runner-up Aristocracy did well to hang on in front as long as he did in that race and is picked out as one to follow in the hope that he can get an easier time of things another day.  

Godolphin-owned Ehtedaam was the class act on an otherwise run-of-the-mill card, and his overall time and quickish sectionals leave little doubt that he is bordering on smart. He ran off a mark of 95 here, however, and could conceivably fall into the gap between good handicapper and genuine listed or minor Group contender.  

There have been some near-misses for the sectionals "to follow" list, including Fiducia at Epsom on Tuesday. The Simon Dow-trained filly has proved costly since doing well to win at Kempton in June but once again impressed sectionally here, finishing best of all in a steadily-run race but unable to get to front-running winner Flashlight. Fiducia is retained in the "to follow" list and has at least proved her versatility, as well as her ability, in recent starts.

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