Sectional Debrief: Kempton, September 5

Yesterday's meeting at Kempton was a rarity in that the majority of races were strongly-run (favouring horses coming from behind) or truly-run. Indeed, it was the only occasion at the track this year on which four of the finishes came in at less than 100%, while another of the races very nearly did. 

The clear exception was the 11f race won by Tajheez, in which a pedestrian pace had a drastic effect on the overall race time (4.50s slower than the following modest contest) and on the finishing sectional (2.20s quicker for the last 3f). 

This is an example of a slowly-run race in which sectionals suggest the finishing order was about right, and anyone rating the race as one entity (rather than as six individual performances within that race) would be justified in increasing the pounds-per-lengths-beaten by a factor of about 1.7. 

That other race at 11f also resulted in a quicker-than-par finish, if to nothing like the same degree, and the winner Compton Bird did quite well in that context to come from off the pace. She can be rated about 4 lbs better than a bare result which had her clearly superior to her rivals as it was. 

There was a lot of "what you see is what you get" with the other results, though the first two in the Captain Secret race did a bit better than might otherwise be apparent in a quickish finish, while Dominium was closest to par of the principals in coming late to win his race.
 
Strictly speaking, the front-running second to Dominium, Dream Catcher, is one for the notebook, having gone too fast but still been beaten only three-quarters of a length, but he is on a losing run and wore blinkers for the first time here so it remains to be seen if he will back this up.

Perhaps the race of greatest interest from a time analysis point of view was the first division of the mile maiden, won by Cornrow. They went a sound pace in this race, reaching the sectional in a similar time to the truly-run second division, and yet came home stronger, with the always-prominent first three pulling clear of their rivals. 

Cornrow may be under-rated next time, but it is more likely that will apply to the second and third, Magic Hurricane (88 sectional rating) and Dawn Calling (82 sectional rating), who both look up to winning maidens at this distance or further. They are added to the sectional "to follow" list. 

Marmalady did a small favour (at very short odds) for the list by marmalising her rivals in the closing sprint handicap. She went plenty fast enough, as the sectionals show, and is a bit better than the result. She seems bound to be highly competitive when going for a hat-trick next time but was overbet last night and may be again so is dropped from the list now. 

The sectional ratings above include a slight uplift in the general level of the overall time ratings on the back of the bigger sectional picture. 

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