Sectional Debrief: Kempton September 4

I have lost count of the number of times - it must have been at least twice - it has been suggested that Timeform should increase its poundage allowance for slowly-run races, as "the runners finish more compressed and need to be strung out as a result". It sounds reasonable, but misses the point that slowly-run races not only compress the margins between horses but skew the order between them. An increase in pounds per length would increase the inherent unreliability of the result itself. 

There were a few slowly-run, or at least steadily-run, races at Kempton yesterday which illustrate the point. For instance, sectionals suggest that For Posterity was a worthy winner of the mile handicap, but that second-placed Araqella should have been almost alongside him, with fifth-placed Gone Dutch hot on their heels. The margins between those horses were actually strung out, not compressed, by the run of the race, while front-running Zain Spirit was fifth-best rather than third-best in sectional terms. Gone Dutch is probably the horse above all to take from the race.

Sectionals also suggest that Perfect Alchemy might have been slightly lucky to beat newcomer Acclio in the 6f maiden, and that fourth-placed Miss Buckshot should have been right alongside that pair. Miss Buckshot nearly made the sectional "to follow" list but the overall form of this race could prove to be suspect. In the penultimate race, Aegaeus got the run of things up front but won well enough to suggest he was comfortably best in any case. Races run at a steady gallop do not always flatter horses that raced up with the pace. 

Then again, Runninglikethewind probably was somewhat flattered in dictating matters in the final race. Runner-up Lybica was his equal on sectionals, while third-placed Calon Lad might have been right up with that pair another day. Lightly-raced Calon Lad looks one to follow on the back of this.

More conventional races came in the form of the first four contests on the card. What you see is largely what you get, but good words can be put in for Four Winds, who managed to win the mile claimer despite going a bit faster than ideal up with the pace early (runner-up Checkpoint slightly flattered), and for Sudden Wish, who ran efficiently in winning one of the 10f classified stakes but did so in a good overall time for the grade.

By contrast, the overall time for the nursery won by Aspirant was disappointing, with the runners finishing slower than par, but not by anything like enough to explain the shortfall. 

To Follow: Gone Dutch, Calon Lad
To Oppose: Zain Spirit, Checkpoint    

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