Sectional Debrief: Kempton, Saturday September 14

The St Leger Meeting at Doncaster, Arc Trials Day at Longchamp and Wise Dan's majestic romp in Canada all meant that a run-of-the-mill race meeting at Kempton on Saturday evening was far removed from centre stage at the weekend. But, as the last few months have confirmed, there may be sectional nuggets in them there results, and the fact that most attention was elsewhere could even make it easier to profit from them. 

As always, the finishing speed %s give a headline view of how the race was run, with a higher figure indicating a faster finish compared to the overall race time and implying a slower pace before the sectional. The overall times are adjusted in the light of this information and then recalculated to get time analysis that takes pace into account.

Par finishing speeds are just over 100% at Kempton, though do vary by race distance, and the above identifies races 3, 6 and 7 as having been steadily-run with quite quick finishes, while races 4 and 8 were the opposite.

Good times can be recorded in races in which the leaders have gone too quickly, as race 4 illustrates, for individual horses will run their races individually. In that event, the first three came from between five and 10 lengths back at the sectional. Fourth-placed Sakhee's Alround, who led turning in, can be rated second-best but is not a reliable betting proposition.

The other race to result in a good time compared to the horses' abilities was race 5. It was not easy to get closing sectionals in this contest, due to camerawork, but they seem to come in at just over 36.0s for the principals and suggest that it was better to be nearer the front than the back of a bunched field turning in. M'Lady Ermyn did as well as any in coming from last at the sectional to third at the line, though her tendency to start slowly and race a bit lazily may need to be cured by headgear. 

Aristocracy was a disappointment for the sectional "to follow" list in that nursery, and is dropped, but it may be worth sticking with another "to follow" horse, Extrasolar, for one more run. He finished only fifth in Sir Mike's race, but that turned into a real sprint, and the first three were second, third and first at the sectional. 

There is a chance that Extrasolar will be at his absolute best back at 6f in a truly-run race, but either way he was probably up against it the way things unfolded here, while fourth-placed Levi Draper did even better in coming home fastest of all in about 33.75s and joins Extrasolar on the "to follow" list. 

That list has had its ups and downs of late, but one major up was the success of Green Door at Doncaster last week at a BSP of 25, following his unplaced effort at York in which sectionals showed he went much too fast. The running totals since the mid-April launch now read: 33 successful bets from 84, +27.36 (each bet, back or lay, risks 1 pt) before commission, for an ROI of +32.6%.  

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