Sectional Debrief: Kempton, October 22&23

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Simon Rowlands has added three horses to the profitable 'to follow' list...

A last-3f sectional of 37.3s does not do full justice to third-placed Pretend's effort, for he quickened clear in the penultimate furlong only to pay for that and get caught late on...

Racing on consecutive evenings at Kempton mean that this Sectional Debrief will deal with both meetings at once, which will be the norm rather than the exception hereafter, as the all-weather season swings fully into gear.
 
Tuesday's action constituted a 6-race card, with only a few clear points of interest. It should be noted that times and sectionals together imply that the surface was slower than usual - in the region of 20 lb slower than of late - if still probably "standard". 

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Diplomatic's and Cayuga's races were truly-run, as reflected in the leader/winner sectionals being around the 100% mark, but the other races were steadily-run, with quicker finishes to varying degrees. The race that stands out is the 2yo fillies' maiden won by Aertex, a modest contest on the face of it but better than that on closer inspection. 

The overall time was respectable, especially when one considers how it was arrived at. The last 3f was the fastest of the six races on the night, and Aertex herself ran it in about 34.9s to earn a sizeable sectional lift. Other double-figure mark-ups go to fifth-placed Penny Sixpence (35.55s) and sixth-placed Gay Marriage (35.3s). The latter should rate well into the 70s next time and is worth considering in an ordinary maiden. Form ratings for this race were raised on the back of the sectional analysis. 

Apostle recorded a faster overall time for the same distance half an hour later, but not by a great amount given that he is fully mature and was contesting a more evenly-run race. Indeed, Apostle ran it closer to par than those who chased him home and should find it difficult to follow up. Third-placed Dominium came from last at the sectional, running the final 3f fastest of all in 35.2s (implying he should be rated close to the winner), and gets added to the profitable "to follow" list.

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The surface had speeded up by Wednesday, though it was still fractionally slower than has been customary of late. A larger proportion than normal of the races were truly-run (as shown by the race finishing speed %s) but only Billingsgate and Multitask ran good overall times compared to their ability. The sectional ratings include a 3 lb lift for a slightly higher view of those times themselves. 

In a slowly-run opener, runner-up Legal Legacy comes out best on sectionals by a bit more than a length, but the form is not strong enough to be any more positive than that. Fifth-placed Kindia can also be rated close to the winner. 

Marzocco produced a useful turn of speed to land the first division of the mile maiden (35.35s sectional) and can be rated a couple of lengths better than the result, while fifth-placed Cry Joy (35.15s) comes out second-best on sectional ratings. However, the overall time was not good enough for either of those to be carried forward as "to follow" horses. 

The second division was more interesting, not just because it was run in a quicker time but in how one of the contenders shaped. A last-3f sectional of 37.3s does not do full justice to third-placed Pretend's effort, for he quickened clear in the penultimate furlong only to pay for that and get caught late on. An estimate of the final-1f sectionals has him finishing at approximately 94%, while his nearest rivals ran close to the par of 98.6%. Pretend has been upgraded by 2 lengths (a conservative amount) and is added to the "to follow" list.

Chookie Royale quickened well to record a reasonable time in the 7f handicap but was bettered by two behind him in terms of the fastest closing sectionals of the evening. Fifth-placed Corporal Maddox posted 35.1s and Janoub Nibras managed 34.95s despite getting a less-than-clear run and finishing eighth. The latter is an interesting contender, not just because of this sectional but because he is well-handicapped at his best and has gone to the highly capable Ismail Mohammed. He gets added to the "to follow" list.

The final race, won by Multitask, was modest, but the time is good in that context, and the principals ran close to par. It is form to view positively in that context.        

To follow:
Dominium, Pretend, Janoub Nibras

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