Track bias, two words that seem to very much split opinion among the racing public. The purer and more wholesome among us tend to frown upon such an occurrence and bleat that it is not a level playing field for all, whether it is the case that half of the field have been drawn out of contention, that there is a so called "golden strip" somewhere on the track or that a track favours a certain running style, but if it is so clear in our minds that there is an angle into racing at a particular venue then why not use that to our advantage?
OK, so the prices on offer from bookmakers may reflect when a horse looks to have circumstances in his favour, but that is not necessarily a negative; if anything it should be viewed as a boon to our punting as it effectively narrows down the field without us having to do any work.
The re-laid surface at Lingfield has taken a hammering in recent days, with Southwell and Wolverhampton both being unable to race, and on the day of writing they will break the record for the greatest number of days racing staged consistently. The new polytrack has stood up to it admirably although it has been possible to derive a definite track bias, and that is that front-runners are favoured.
With this article being written on Wednesday, over the last four days of racing the front-runners, to the eye at least, seem to have been lasting for an incredibly long time in the straight. This is confirmed with a quick analysis of the result, which shows that 50% of the winners were accredited with a Timeform in-play symbol of either a one or a two, meaning that they either led/disputed the lead or were prominent/close-up. Incidentally this percentage was much higher over Saturday, Sunday and Monday, where 64% of the front-runners triumphed, but the more conservatively ridden horses staged a fight back on Tuesday.
It is also worth mentioning that, where the front-runners were not managing to land the spoils, at least one finished in the places on the vast majority of occasions. Clearly where there is an abundance of pace it is still likely that a hold-up horse will be favoured, but it is a factor that must be considered when attempting to find a bet.
It is now time to add a couple of horses to our list of Sandstormers, and hopefully they will pay their way over the winter. The first name to mention is Fred Willetts, trained by Mark Brisbourne, who has tasted success on the all-weather in the past, twice at Southwell and once at Kempton. The four-year-old has made just two starts for this yard, shaping with promise when fifth on the first occasion before running poorly, after just four days off, over nine and a half furlongs, a distance that stretched his stamina. His prominent style of racing would be ideally suited to Lingfield, a track which he is yet to race at, but his mark has now fallen to 78 and the suspicion is that he is capable of scoring no matter where he runs. Fred Willetts holds an entry at Wolverhampton on December 15, over a much more suitable six furlongs, and he will certainly be of interest there.
Another worth bearing in mind over the coming months is the Andrew Crook-trained Cabal, who returned from a seven month absence with a respectable effort, given that she was not ideally placed throughout the race, at Wolverhampton last week where she was perfectly entitled to be in need of the run. Two of her three career wins have been gained at that same track, with the five-year-old putting up her best effort for some time when winning in March and, with her BHA mark of 57 not looking beyond her, she could be entering the winners' enclosure again once more, possibly at Wolverhampton on December 17.
Sandstormers Spreadsheet 12/12/12
Just the two to add to our spreadsheet this week but, with them both holding entries and last weeks' addition, O'Gorman, also entered it could be a profitable week for the Sandstormers. As more National Hunt meetings get called off through the depths of winter the all-weather action will come to the rescue and, as we build up our bank of horses to follow, we ought to have a fairly extensive artillery with which to go to war.
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