Sprint Cup Preview: Spoilsport of Kings

Like race, religion and non-triers, the Paralympics is dangerous territory in which to stray, but when we've reached the stage of single leg amputees complaining about an unfair advantage for double leg amputees then something has to be said. Some have heralded the Pistorius saga as the 'arrival' of the Paralympics, seeming to suggest that the very fact there can be a newsworthy controversy is a positive parallel - the derivative of the 'para' part in Paralympics - to any and every other sporting event, but that's perhaps missing the bigger picture. Sport, after all, is only sport, just as horses are only horses, even Frankel, for whom the endless lobbying about what he could and should do next was brought into sharp focus and context by the appearance of Sir Henry Cecil at York.

The unfairness element of sport is often part of the intrigue, especially in horse racing where discrimination is rife, arguably more so in races on the Flat than over jumps given the shorter timeframe and finer margin for error, but trying to work out the nature and degree of the inequality is the edge-making facility in assessment. The draw, the ground, the track, the pace, the tactics, and many more elements besides, can all be determining factors.

And don't take my word for it.

'There are too many outside influences that can mess up a Flat race.'

The trainer who told me that only this week has a 31% strike rate in Flat turf races this year, in the process earning prize money in excess of £200,000, but Donald McCain, who's National Hunt born, bred and buttered, wants nothing more than to dip into the Flat every now and then.

The full thoughts of McCain, on various subjects, will be coming soon to a computer near you, but for now there's a big weekend on the Flat to concentrate on, albeit with McCain's words of warning ringing in the ears. The Sprint Cup at Haydock is the fifth and final Group 1 event of the year for sprinters in Britain, and the previous four have all been, to borrow a phrase, messed up by outside influences, to a lesser or greater extent. Let's look at them, digging out the Haydock contenders along the way.

KING'S STAND
The Determinator: The pace. There was only one side to this story, the far side, as that was always the focal point for the pace, the main action concentrated there, meaning the higher-drawn half of the 22-strong field were never really in with a shout.
The winner: Little Bridge (made most from stall 7).
The moral winner: Sole Power (third from stall 22).
The replayers: 2nd Bated Breath, 9th Ortensia, 10th Wizz Kid.

DIAMOND JUBILEE
The Determinator: Black Caviar. Her presence eclipsed all else. A wonder from down under. A seismic jockey blunder. A trainer's face like thunder. My, how the mighty have fell in.
The winner: Black Caviar.
Three moral winners: 1) Black Caviar, who won despite operating at 70%; 2) Peter Moody, for not sacking Nolen on the spot; 3) Society Rock, who might have won on the day but for blowing the start.
The replayers: 4th Soul, 5th Society Rock, 9th Es Que Love, 11th Genki.

JULY CUP
The Determinator: The ground. The heavy ground. The heavy, heavy ground, which only one horse truly relished.
The winner: Mayson.
The moral winner: God. The likes of draw, pace and tactics can at least be half-predicted, but not the weather, and the July Cup served as a reminder that, as far as outside influences go, God is still the biggest and, for my money, the best.
The replayers: 3rd Society Rock, 4th Ortensia, 5th Hawkeyethenoo, 8th Strong Suit, 9th Dandy Boy, 10th Genki.

NUNTHORPE
The Determinator: Hamish McGonagall. His attempt to break a land speed record took the race away from the vast majority, as, drawn 1, the Hamish hare was out of reach and impossible to catch for most, but not for Ortensia, who, from a lower stall than the other big players, was locked onto the target on the right part of the track as it developed.
The winner: Ortensia.
The moral winner: Ortensia. Whatever advantage she had in where she raced, Ortensia's finishing burst was something to behold.
The replayers: 1st Ortensia, 6th Bated Breath, 11th Dandy Boy, 15th Confessional.

It's our job, as the pre-determinators, to work out what may be the deciding influences for the Sprint Cup, a race that could be billed as the championship decider if it wasn't for the fact that the two best sprinters to have competed in Britain this year - Black Caviar and Moonlight Cloud - aren't at Haydock, but the two next-best are. The score so far between Bated Breath and Ortensia is 1-1, but they were just the warm-ups: Ortensia was warming up, or trying to warm up, to the British climate when finishing behind Bated Breath at Royal Ascot, and Bated Breath was only just warming up at the end of the Nunthorpe, five furlongs at York too sharp for him, plus he raced on the opposite side to Ortensia.

Six furlongs at Haydock is much more Bated Breath's territory. The only time in four starts that he's been beaten at Haydock was when he lost out by a nose to Dream Ahead in the Sprint Cup last year, though generally the track is fair to all, as should be the ground, which leaves us with the draw - the one provision that has influenced (some say ruined, Donald says messed up) two of the four major sprints in Britain this year. The draw is likely to be the determinator in the Sprint Cup, too, certainly regards round three of the Anglo/Australian, male/female, presser/latecomer battle between Bated Breath and Ortensia, the pair chalk and cheese in stall position, either side in 1 and 15.

That's what, for me, tips the scales in favour of Bated Breath, because this time, with front-runner Es Que Love drawn next door in 2, it could be a role-reversal from York in that Ortensia is the one left marooned and vulnerable while Bated Breath motors along in the fast lane. Of course there are others, thirteen others, but none have the form of Bated Breath, who might have been going for his fifth Group 1 win here rather than his first but for the fine and narrow margins involved in top-level sprinting. Being four times a bridesmaide and not yet the bride really is unfair, but racing never has been and never will be a level playing field, which is something to celebrate, othwerwise we wouldn't be so absorbed by the game.

Mirror mirror on the wall, who's the fairest of them all? This time, for once, I hope it's Bated Breath.

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