Jamie Lynch's Eclipse Preview: So You Think he'd have won?

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Who will win the Eclipse in the absence of So You Think?

"So You Think would have won this Eclipse. He had answered all the questions, while the remaining ten all have big questions still to answer."

Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch provides all of the questions and some of the answers for the big race of the weekend, with a eulogy of a retiring star along the way.

Following on from last week's impromptu 'name the three' quiz, but closer to home this time rather than drifting into classical music, can you name the three shortest-priced horses against Frankel in any of his eleven races?

Top answer, and no prizes for this one, is of course Canford Cliffs, who was only 7/4 for their 'Duel on the Downs', as big a mismatch as Hatton versus Mayweather, Hatton versus Pacquiao, Baulch versus Peopleton Brook, or Crouch and Clancy. Next to be revealed, at 5/2, and largely justified by his subsequent record of three Group 1 wins, is Dream Ahead in the Dewhurst. But there is one in between those two: a horse whose regard and promise was so high that he was backed into 9/4 to beat the unbeatable Frankel.

It was Farhh, it was in September 2010, it was in a Doncaster conditions race in which both were having their second start, and it didn't happen in the end as Farhh, unruly in the stalls, had to be withdrawn. Time has shown that he wouldn't have beaten Frankel, but, eventually, time has also shown that Farhh is indeed a Group 1 horse in his own right.

Up until this week we had to refer to him as either Godolphin's Farhh or Farhh: that Godolphin horse, because his name wasn't long enough let alone renowned enough for him to be distinguishable without some qualification, but he's now the centre of attention, favourite for the Eclipse.

The name itself, Farhh, roughly translates to 'gift from the gods sent in colossal amounts of bubble-wrap with 'FRAGILE' stamped all over the box', and while I was half-expecting Thursday's announcement that a horse was 'found to be lame in his stable and will not run in the Eclipse', I was anticipating it to be him and not the hardened, globetrotting, robust So You Think. While we're here, a word on So You Think who, if Royal Ascot is to be his final race, went out on a high, just not an all-time high as Aidan might have you believe, as the So You Think of last month was, on Timeform ratings, no better than the So You Think of last year, when he generally had better rivals to deal with than Carlton House, Farhh and co. To sum up So You Think using three words, I'd go for imposing, indelible, and overburdened.

Imposing because of his physical presence but also his stamp on certain races including the Prince of Wales's Stakes; indelible because of his self-made notoriety around the world and the fact he was still going strong at the age of six; overburdened because the hype, combined with the aggressive and adventurous campaigning, meant that some people, myself included, judged the product on the advertising rather than the product itself, a consistent (on turf) and top-class racehorse who was asked to go above and beyond the call of duty.

So You Think would have won this Eclipse. He had answered all the questions, while the remaining ten all have big questions still to answer. Let's ask them...

Cityscape: will you stay?
I don't think he will. Nothing about his previous performances has suggested he wants to go up in trip, including his career-defining win at Dubai over nine furlongs when his speed helped him get the jump on the rest under an enterprising ride, and don't forget, too, that he's not really bred to stay, as his half-brother Bated Breath would testify.

City Style: are you good enough?
It seems not so far, as even on his last couple of performances, the two best of his career, he's got 4½ lengths to make up on Cityscape and 2¼ lengths on Farhh, though, like Farhh, he would have finished closer at Royal Ascot with a clearer run, and it may count for something that he's in the form of his life, also unexposed at the trip.

Crackerjack King: who are you?
Unbeaten in Italy, but the once he went further afield, for the French Derby last year, he got his backside smacked, and a defeat of Afsare, as were the circumstances of his latest Group 1 win at home, isn't enough for a non-Italian Group 1.

Farhh: any wear and tear?
The aforementioned fragility is a worry, in that this will be a second Group 1 in little over a fortnight for a horse who, prior to Royal Ascot, had run three times in three years. It's enough of an issue to put me off backing him at the odds he now is.

Monterosso: cold?
Since we last saw him in Britain, back in the summer of 2010, Monterosso has thrived in the sun and made a big name for himself racing exclusively in Dubai, primed to win the World Cup, and, for me, the chances of him reproducing that level of form in this different environment is slim to non-existent.

Nathaniel: have you got an eye on Ascot?
Last year's King George winner is definitely more suited to the demands of that race than this one, unless there's a downpour, which is apparently unlikely despite the current monsoon in the north, and this trip on his first start of the year is likely to find him out, but put him spot on for Ascot...

Sri Putra: (the Rorschach test) look at this picture and tell me what you see.
It's all about the psychological state of mind for Sri Putra: if he sees butterflies and bunnies then he may finish third or fourth, but if it's blood and body parts then he's liable to turn it in completely.

Twice Over: are you as good as you were?
No, but not so far removed as his two underwhelming runs in the spring might suggest. Freshened up since then, for a race he won in 2010, and back on better ground, I'm convinced that a reinvigorated Twice Over can run to a Timeform rating in the mid-120s, which may be enough for him to get a place at least in a race that, as we're discovering horse by horse, none of the rest are sure to produce their best for one reason or another.

Bonfire: are you any good?
He suddenly looks shaky. Not only did he flop in the Derby, but the Dante form has also taken knock after knock, and he's got a lot on his plate here against the older horses.

Cogito: are you lost?
It's the only explanation.

Ten horses, ten questions, few positive answers; that's the sort of renewal it is without So You Think. Each runner has its flaws, including all those at the top of the market, and, as such, it could pay to take a chance on one of the supposed outsiders, certainly in the place market, with Twice Over at around 3.814/5 the most appealing to me. That's the best bet bye Farhh.
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