Chester Preview: The importance of Polo position

Who will be the most expensive horse in action at Chester this year? The first port of call is the blue-bloods in line for the Derby trial on Thursday, the Chester Vase, and sure enough there are several in there that might make a dent on even Sheikh Fahad's ISA. Coolmore had to go to 400,000 guineas to get Astrology in the team, while Mickdaam's career earnings of £¼m is still 100k shy of his purchase price, and Minimise Risk sounds like an ironic name considering he cost 410,000 guineas as a yearling. But what about Fina Pepa.

On September 8th, on the infield of Chester racecourse, England will face South America in round three of the International Polo Series. Forgetting the Ryder Cup where the catchment is in our favour, it strikes me as wholly unfair that a single country has to take on an entire continent, especially if the South American squad includes Fina Pepa, the most prized polo pony in the world, bought for $490,000 a couple of years ago.

My prior knowledge of polo consisted of three words: Charles, Joules and posh. However, I've done a bit of research and according to Mark Tomlinson, superstar of the sport, the top polo ponies all share the same qualities, namely nimbleness, agility and speed.

Nimbleness, agility and speed in a horse count for plenty regards racing at Chester, more so than almost any other track in Britain, but there's one more crucial element that Roodee winners generally have on their side. Luck. If not luck with the draw, the importance of which you don't need me to stress, then certainly luck in the run. Agility and ability help towards a horse making its own luck at Chester, sometimes over and above the perceived decisiveness of the draw - 'perceived' because the reality doesn't quite match the myth as far as the draw bias goes, at least not at this meeting which involves a better class of horse than the rest of the season at Chester.

Of the 58 races at the May meeting over the last three years, less than a third have been won from the so-called 'favourable' stalls (i.e. the lowest-quarter of the field), and interestingly that strike rate drops to 10% in double-figure fields. It's just something to keep in mind for this week: don't be automatically put off by a non-inside draw. In fact, a non-inside draw is often where the value lies, with the markets at Chester still tending to be weighted to the low stalls.

In most respects Chester is just like any other sharp track in that a horse's form and dexterity, in tandem of course with the rider's nous, remain far more consequential to its chance of winning as the luck of the draw.

WEDNESDAY
I did say in most respects, and it just so happens that race one on day one doesn't qualify in the most respects category, being for two-year-olds that are still learning how to race, meaning the course complexities are accentuated. Even then, of the nine juveniles that made the podium in the Lily Agnes in 2009-11, only three originated from stall 1 or 2, and a more valuable commodity is experience, and winning experience at that, as all bar one of the nine had raced at least twice before Chester and all bar two had won.

That overwhelming evidence suggests it's going to be very difficult for newcomer Pippy, a high-profile horse because of its high-profile owner, Wayne Rooney. While there's no knowing what to expect from Pippy himself on his first day at school, we can have a stab at the likely headlines out of racing Rooney story:

Rooney on the Roodee (Racing Post). Mane-Chester U-neigh-ted (Daily Star). Pippy Pippy Sheikh (The Sun). Manchester United and England striker Wayne Rooney has a horse running at Chester races (The Telegraph). Coleen wears similar frock to Diana (Daily Mail).

Unlike the Derby, it's still all to play for in the Oaks and, as has often happened in recent years, it may be that Chester's trial, the Cheshire Oaks, throws up a classic contender, especially as eight of the 12 are entered at Epsom, the brilliantly-named Betterbetterbetter and the surely-we've-had-this-name-before-named Dreams of Fire the likeliest pair judged on the ante-post betting.

Because of its configuration, Chester inevitably creates track specialists, and the all-aged handicaps both feature last year's winners, Overturn in the main event and Doctor Parkes in the sprint, though neither will repeat the trick, Overturn higher in the handicap and the draw, while Doctor Parkes is coming in cold this time.

BET OF THE DAY
With two runs including a win and a draw that should put a bit of extra meat on his price, Baddilini fits the Lily Agnes profile perfectly. At Kempton last week he possibly paid a bit for putting it up to Lyric Ace from halfway, and a more patient ride, demanded by stall 8, may end up working in his favour. And it's always a bonus when you've got Betfair columnist Ryan Moore on your side.

THURSDAY
We haven't mentioned the good Doctor yet, but now's an appropriate time given he's responsible for 16% of the runners on Thursday. Dr Marwan Koukash may look a little like a Bond baddie, and his designs of a complete monopoly of his beloved Roodee may sound a little like a Bond plot, requiring the attention of Chester's most famous son, Daniel Craig, but you can't help but think Marwan is a top bloke, particularly if you've watched the ATR feature from last year or heard the story I was told at Haydock (saved for the book).

For my money, Area Fifty One in the first is the most alluring of his 11 horses across six races. Besides being progressive, he's straightforward, comfortable making the running if needs be, therefore ideal for Chester (more so from stall 4), and you can (and should) bet that Richard Fahey will have him trained to the second let alone the minute for this meeting. I suspect this race has been the plan for Area Fifty One ever since he was bought from the mixed Willie Muir for 85,000 guineas last October.

There's not much to say on the two Group races, other than they'll be betting 4/1 the field in a take-your-pick Huxley Stakes and something will improve past Mickdaam in a Chester Vase which won't resemble last year's treat where an Irish Derby winner beat a King George winner.

BET OF THE DAY
Marwan to have a winner, hopefully Area Fifty One.

FRIDAY
Last year, of the two races that kind of tread on each other's toes, if the form of the Chester Vase was Joseph on Camelot then the Dee Stakes was Joseph on St Nicholas Abbey, but it will be the other way around this time, certainly if Bonfire shows up. We put up Bonfire for the Derby in Horses to Follow a couple of months ago, and that guess looks a bit more like a calculated premonition after the Guineas, remembering that he'd have run French Fifteen close with some luck in the Criterium International. It will be disappointing if Bonfire doesn't take a big step along the Epsom road on Friday.

It was disappointing Sea Moon hadn't taken a big step along the Epsom road at this stage last year, for the same ante-post betting reason that we want Bonfire to take a big step along the Epsom road this year, but Sea Moon is still a top-notcher in the making, and he's due to reappear in the Ormonde. This could be the race of the week because Brown Panther, just ahead of Sea Moon in the St Leger, is likewise set to start his season in a Group 3 which has proved a springboard to greatness the last two years, won by Harbinger and the aforementioned St Nicholas Abbey, whose greatness admittedly doesn't quite stretch to a twenty length headstart.

BET OF THE DAY
There are a few ifs here, but if Imperial Djay makes the cut in the opening seven-furlong handicap, and if he's not drawn horrifically wide, then he's a good bet. He won at the meeting twelve months ago, and he's looked a horse coming to a timely boil with each run this year, added to which the stable is embarking on one of its hot streaks. Imperial Djay, though no Fina Pepa, is agile and nimble enough to negotiate his way through a big field on Friday.
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