Handicappers' Corner: Winsili breaks Group 1 duck in Nassau

Goodwood is a track where, so often, the runners are something of a hostage to fortune. Richard Hughes, who arguably rides it better than anyone, found his luck had run dry by race three on day five of the Glorious meeting as Sky Lantern met plenty of interference when set to deliver her challenge in the Nassau Stakes.

Following on from her defeat in the Falmouth, it won't have been lost on Hughes that once again William Buick played a pivotal role in denying her a chance, his mount Winsili keeping Sky Lantern in a pocket over a furlong out before going on to record a neck success over Thistle Bird.

In truth, the bare form of the Nassau looks very muddling, one that if it was run again would lead to a different result, something that is borne out by the Timeform ratings of the leading participants.

Winsili and Thistle Bird both earned a figure of 117 for their performances in the Nassau, Winsili improving markedly on her previous form and suited by dropping in trip after failing to stay in Ribblesdale, but in historical terms, her new figure is on the conservative side. 

Race standards for the Nassau suggest a range for the winner's rating of 117-122, while 117 is the third-lowest allotted to the winner since the race was upgraded to a Group 1 in 1999. Only Halfway To Heaven (115) in 2007 and Zahrat Dubai (114) in 1999 were lower.

Behind the first two, the next three home all had excuses and remain rated ahead of the first two, Hot Snap on 118p, Sajjhaa on 121 and Sky Lantern on 120.

If the Nassau didn't deliver as the race it was built up as, the second 'Duel On The Downs' earlier in the week lived up to all and more that it promised as Toronado and Dawn Approach both put up top-class performances to pull clear of the reliable Queen Anne winner and Eclipse runner-up Declaration Of War.

Reversing form from the 2000 Guineas and the St James's Palace Stakes, Toronado earned a rating of 133, while Dawn Approach went back up to 132, Declaration of War also running right up to his best of 126 to be well clear of the rest.

Toronado's rating of 133 puts him as the highest-rated horse in Europe currently in training, narrowly ahead of Dawn Approach, Farhh and Novellist all on 132. A rating of 133 for Toronado is the same that was awarded to Canford Cliffs at his best. He also won the Sussex Stakes, back in 2010.

The Sussex was further proof of the fine margins between the two three-year-olds, Toronado sweeping through late after Dawn Approach had been first to commit in a strongly run race (Toronado earned a timefigure of 129), and a final match-up between the pair in the QEII will make a first British Champions' Day without Frankel a pretty easy sell for Great British Racing.

Although hosting just two Group 1 contests, there was plenty of quality elsewhere throughout Glorious Goodwood. The best of the rest coming from Moviesta and Montiridge who both earned ratings of 122p for their wins in the King George and Thoroughbred Stakes respectively.

Moviesta has proved notably progressive this year since beaten in a Nottingham handicap on his reappearance from a BHA mark of 83 and the return to 5f brought about further progress. Although his rating leaves him with a bit to find with the likes of Shea Shea (127) and Sole Power (126), the Nunthorpe is a race that will play to his strengths.

Montiridge looks to be benefiting from a patient campaign but a step up to Group 1 or 2 company will be in the offing as some stage judged on his most recent win. He again looked to win with something in hand when confirming Jersey placings with Tawhid. He'll need supplementing for the Celebration Mile, but it looks an obvious target, while the Group 1 Premio Vittorio di Capua at Milan could be on the radar too, Hannon winning that in 2011 with Dick Turpin. 

The highlight on the third day was the Goodwood Cup won by Brown Panther. Rated 120 coming into the race, he didn't have to step up on that with main form rivals Mount Athos and Cavalryman not firing. He could have the Melbourne Cup on his agenda at the end of the year.

Earlier in the week, Cap O'Rushes won the Gordon Stakes. That proved a very messy affair, and he didn't need to reproduce his Irish Derby fourth to prevail narrowly. He remains on 114. 

The Gordon has proved a good St Leger trial in recent years, and the most notable performance with that race in mind came from Excess Knowledge. Finishing best after his rider dropped his reins at a crucial stage, he probably should have won, and has been rated accordingly at 115p. His pedigree gives hope that he'll find the requisite improvement required for the St Leger, a median rating of 123 having been required to win the race in recent years.

With Goodwood brought to a close, Deauville hosted the best action on Sunday with the Prix Maurice de Gheest. Moonlight Cloud completed a hat-trick of wins in this 6½-furlong contest, beating a slightly below-par Lethal Force by a length and three quarters. A new rating of 128 means she's the highest rated filly or mare currently in training in Europe.   

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