Handicappers' Corner: War, what is he good for?

Future Champions' Day might still lack universal appeal, some of the less forward thinkers in this great game again voicing their criticisms of the feature day in the aftermath of the Middle Park and the Dewhurst, and while neither renewal this year will go down as particularly memorable, the concept of a day to help define the ultimate pecking order of the juvenile crop deserves support.

This year's Dewhurst lacked the depth of some renewals, failing to attract Timeform's top-rated juvenile, the 121p-rated Toormore for one, though War Command, rated just 1 lb his inferior did go to post, and recorded a workmanlike success to beat Cable Bay by a length and a quarter.

Timeform have taken the view that War Command didn't need to run up to his best to win the Dewhurst, earning a performance rating of 116, runner-up Cable Bay improving his rating to 112. A rating of 116 is on the low side judged on historical standards, the five year range set at 118-123, and a figure of 116 is more in line with the figure suggested by prior-ratings standards.

A rating of 116 for winning the Dewhurst is one of the lowest since the turn of the century, only Rock of Gibraltar getting the verdict in a three-way photo in 2001, earned a lower figure of 114+. Of course that horse went on to win the Guineas the following season and War Command did his prospects for that contest no harm, particularly as he's the type to train on well and improve over a longer trip. A median rating of 128 has been required to win the 2000 Guineas over the last five seasons.

The Middle Park attracted a more representative field than the Dewhurst, the winners of the Gimcrack, Mill Reef, Flying Childers, Cornwallis and Phoenix all taking each other on, and it was the winner of the first-named contest, Astaire, that came out on top.

Raced only at 6f, Astaire has now been successful on four of his five starts, unsurprisingly this latest victory his best yet, earning an increase in his rating from 108p to 115. Astaire is most straightforward and game, and positive tactics adopted on him on his last two starts have seen him to good effect.

The range of suggested ratings for the winner of the Middle Park judged on historical standards (111 - 121) varies a little more than ideal to consider it a reliable pointer alone, and with an ordinary winning timefigure (104), a lowish view has been taken of the form overall, even though it still has the third and fourth, Justice Day (108) and Speedfiend (104) improving.

Runner-up Hot Streak, rated 120p for his Cornwallis win the week before, although going close, didn't match that level, recording a figure of 113 in the Middle Park. His figure remains unchanged on 120p for the time being despite the first three from the Cornwallis all coming out and doing little for the form.

As mentioned last week, a high view of the Cornwallis was taken, in part because it was run in a very fast time compared to other races on the card. 

As well as traditional form figures, Timeform also produce computer time figures for all British tracks where there is sufficient data to calculate standard times. 

Timefigures measure the performance of horses not on their form one against another but in terms of time, in seconds (per five furlongs) faster or slower than a certain fixed standard. Their calculation takes account of track differences, race distances, the ages of the horses concerned, weight-for-age, weights carried, the state of the track surface and the strength and direction of the prevailing wind.

Using this methodology saw timefigures given to the first three home in the Cornwallis, Hot Streak, Outer Space and Kickboxer of 125, 105, 104. All three horses, albeit under different conditions failed to get close to that level next time, notably Kickboxer in a nursery off a BHA mark of 79.

At Timeform, time analysis is treated differently to form analysis. Form evidence accumulates gradually over the course of many races, with subsequent performances meaning past ones are regularly subject to revision. As timefigures judge a horse against a fixed standard, this process isn't carried out, or put more bluntly, you're stuck with them.

In hindsight, would such a high timefigure have been returned knowing how the horses would run subsequently? Possibly not, but the methodology used for Timeform's computer timefigures has stood up to scrutiny down the years, often highlighting horses of being well-above average at an earlier juncture than merely traditional form analysis would. 

For example, when Toormore won a Leicester maiden back in the spring, a timefigure of 102 suggested he was potentially pattern standard, whereas race standardisation only would have suggested rating him closer to 88.

If this means rating a handful of horses a season higher than the balance of the form suggests is correct, then it is a trade-off worth tolerating, and Hot Streak can still be viewed as a very good prospect for top sprints in 2014, even if the future might not be quite so bright for Outer Space and Kickboxer.      

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