Handicappers' Corner: Novellist another German success story

The King George is a race of changing nature, no longer can it rely on attracting the best middle-distance 3-y-o, commercial pressure from breeders perhaps one factor in forcing Derby winners to show themselves to be just as effective back at a mile and a quarter, with the Eclipse now seeming the preferred route. 

In fact since 2000, the King George has been targeted by the Derby winner just three times, Kris Kin (2003) and Workforce (2010) both failing to emulate Galileo, the only horse since the turn of the century to win both the Derby and the King George in the same season.

Although failing to attract the top 3-y-os, it continues to attract the cream of the older division, and in ratings terms, it continues to bear close scrutiny to the Arc, the median rating of the winner at 130 just 1 lb behind that of the Arc in the last ten runnings.

Ascot has done more than most to attract foreign raiders in recent years and was rewarded again as Novellist came out on top, the second German-trained winner of the race in consecutive seasons after Danedream's success.

Novellist put up a top-class effort in defeating Trading Leather by 5 lengths, earning a new Timeform rating of 132. The race was run in course-record time, but it needs to be remembered that conditions were very fast, and the overall timefigure of 128, while excellent and provides plenty of substance to Novellist's form rating, is not outstanding.

Novellist's rating of 132 is easy to justify on both historical race standards (the range over the last five years is between 126-134), and prior ratings standards and propels him to the top of the ratings of those likely to be aimed at the Arc, narrowly ahead of Orfevre (130), Al Kazeem (129) and further clear of lightly-raced 3-y-o Flintshire (123p) who he disputes favouritism with.

Although a top-class performance, in historical terms, Novellist's effort cannot be considered anything out of the ordinary with Harbinger (140), Alamshar (133) and Galileo (134) all earning higher ratings this century while in the 1990s, Daylami (135+), Swain in 1997 (134), St Jovite (135) and Generous (138+) all recorded higher figures, a reminder of the enduring quality of this race. In fact since 1970, Mill Reef (139+), Grundy (137), Dancing Brave (137) and Reference Point (139) all broke the 135 mark.

Of the beaten horses, Trading Leather ran to a similar level as he had when winning the Irish Derby and remains rated 122 while Hillstar improves from 118 to 121.

Assessing Cirrus des Aigles is perhaps more complex. It's possible that neither the trip nor ground played to his strengths, but after failing to improve for his reappearance like he has in the past, there's a chance he doesn't retain all of his ability. As a result he's now rated on his second past the post effort in the 2012 Prix d'Ispahan at 123+. 

Those hoping that Al Kazeem would contest the King George had to make do with the Eclipse and Prince of Wales's form being represented at York by Mukhadram, and he was only workmanlike in landing the odds by three quarters of a length from Grandeur. 

Having upwards of 8 lb in hand of his rivals, both race standards and the way in which he went about things point to Mukhadram not being at his very best, needing to run to only 120 on the day. His master rating remains on 126.

Over in France, Elusive Kate completed back-to-back wins in the Prix Rothschild, showing herself to be at least as good as ever as her rating increased from 120 to 121. In truth that is a conservative view of the form, with race standards suggesting a figure as high as 125 a possibility.

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