Handicappers' Corner: Juveniles in focus

Timeform's Top 20 Juveniles (as of 10/6/13)
109p Stubbs
108p Sandiva
107p Coach House
103p Thunder Strike
101p Saayerr
100p Anticipated
100 Heart Focus, Rizeena, Sacha Park
99p Toormore
98p Astaire, Beldale Memory, Ertijaal
97p Najm Suhail
97+ Justice Day
97 Club Wexford, Steventon Star
96p Fine 'N Dandy, Green Door, Peniaphobia

The Irish Bank Holiday meeting at Naas last Monday is the pivotal place to start when looking at the current 2-y-o crop with the winners of the two listed races currently occupying the top two places in the division.

The colts and geldings race went the way of the Aidan O'Brien-trained Stubbs, who, with a rating of 109p, is the highest rated juvenile to have run so far. Richard Fahey's Sandiva was an impressive winner of the Fillies' Sprint Stakes and she's rated 108p, they are ahead of Stubbs' stable companion Coach House (107p) and Richard Hannon's Thunder Strike 103p.

These horses all have something in common, in that they have all been victorious in listed company, and it must be emphasised at this stage, that running to a high rating for juveniles, is as much about opportunity as it is ability. Those horses that have been able to test themselves in better company, have had more of a chance to show their maximum, than those that have been kept to maiden and novice company so far.

Stubbs has won the right races so far, he emulated Cristoforo Columbo when breaking his maiden at Navan, and it was Dawn Approach last year that won the listed race at Naas that he was successful in last week. 

Though he was well on top at the finish, how strong that listed race proves remains to be seen, he was the only previous winner in that field of four, and it turned into a 2f sprint, the overall time much slower than that recorded by Sandiva half an hour later.

Sandiva's race looks much more solid, and she has created an excellent impression to win her two starts to date. The race she won was run at a strong gallop and she readily held off Heart Focus (100) by 2 lengths, the pair 4½ lengths clear of Fig Roll in third.

A rating of 108p would have been sufficient to have won each of the last five renewals of the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, and if that does prove Sandiva's target, then she deserves to be a short-priced favourite for it.

It would be a surprise if Coach House were to take on stablemate Stubbs, so perhaps the Norfolk is a more likely target for him, a race O'Brien has won just the once, with Johannesburg in 2001. He's been kept to 5f so far, his most notable success when landing a listed race at the Curragh at the Irish Guineas meeting.

Thunder Strike is set to be Coventry bound after his Woodcote success, where Richard Hughes is unlikely to face a straightforward decision over what to ride, his retained stable having four other juveniles in Timeform's top twenty.

It's unlikely they'll all go for the Coventry, but one that surely will is Toormore, who ran to 99p, a high level for a debutant, when winning a Leicester maiden at the end of May. He had only a neck to spare over William Haggas' Ertijaal (98p), but the pair pulled 7 lengths clear of the rest, recording timefigures of 102 and 101 in the process. Both would be worth their place in the Coventry despite their lack of experience.

The Norfolk Stakes was upgraded to Group 2 status in 2006, whilst the Windsor Castle was made a listed race in 2005. It's arguable that race is due a further upgrade given the level taken to win the two races isn't that different. 

The median rating for the Norfolk winner over the last five seasons is 105, and as high as 103 for the Windsor Castle for the same time period. 

Fine 'N Dandy (96p) looked Royal Ascot material when routing his field in a maiden at Chester's May meeting and looks primed to go well over the minimum trip in whatever race he contests, but Salford Red Devil who was behind him at Chester that day looks sure to give him more of a race should they meet again.

Salford Red Devil (95p) got off the mark at the same track this weekend and was most impressive, value for much further than the winning distance, having to work hard to get across from a wide draw and maintaining a strong gallop when the other pacesetters dropped away. A step up in grade is in the offing for him. 

David's list of 2-y-os to look out for at Royal Ascot:
Sandiva
Toormore/Ertijaal
Salford Red Devil  

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