Handicappers' Corner: Camelot remains on course for Triple Crown

For the second time in a little over a week, we were reminded that even "racing certainties" can struggle under certain circumstances.
Camelot's success at 1/5 in the Irish Derby at the Curragh on Saturday evening was not quite so narrow nor so hard-fought as Black Caviar's at 1/6 seven days earlier, but it was not a stroll in the park, either.

While Camelot never truly looked like being beaten, Born To Sea ensured that he had to come under pressure, and one consequence of that pressure was that Camelot wandered on ground that connections maintain was softer than ideal for him.

At the line, Camelot had two lengths to spare over Born To Sea, with nine lengths and more back to the remaining three runners.
Anyone who implies that they can rate a five-runner Irish Derby, run in testing conditions and with wide margins between most of the runners, with unerring accuracy is likely to be lying. Small fields make for greater variance in assessments; small fields involving fairly lightly-raced horses on borderline soft/heavy going even more so.

Any assessment should be cautious and revisited as more information comes in, in other words.

"Yardstick" handicapping - whereby it is assumed, for convenience, that one of the principals has run to its pre-race rating - would give winning Timeform figures of: 130 (based on Camelot); 118 (based on Born To Sea); 133 (based on Light Heavy); 141 (based on Akeed Mofeed); and 202 (based on Astrology). Hardly the exact science handicapping is normally portrayed as!

As explained previously, there is no scientific basis for yardstick handicapping, and we do not use it at Timeform. Instead, standardisation based on past runnings of the race and the previous achievements of the specific horses contesting this edition suggest Camelot ran below his Epsom figure, if not necessarily by much.

On reflection, we have assessed Camelot's Curragh performance at 125. This has him underperforming by 5 lb and Born To Sea improving by 7 lb. The other horses in the Irish Derby are all considered to have run below their best. Time will tell whether this view is correct.

Camelot will not be downgraded as a result of his somewhat underwhelming Irish Derby win (it is surprising how many seem to imagine that a horse's latest run is almost all that matters), but it has to be said that his form could do with a boost sooner rather than later.
His workmanlike defeat of French Fifteen in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in May looks worse rather than better now, and his far more authoritative victory on firmer going in The Derby at Epsom has been let down twice by third-placed Astrology. Still, Camelot's Epsom run was backed up by a good time, and that is one reason we remain confident that he is an above-average Derby winner.

Camelot's rating of 130 would have been good enough to win the St Leger - his principal target now - every year so far this century, but a figure of 125 (the horse's next-best rating after Epsom) has been equalled or bettered in the final classic on five occasions in that time.

"Small-field contest on testing ground" was the context for the two other races above Group 3 level at the Curragh at the weekend. However, neither the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes nor the Group 2 Railway Stakes seemed quite so tricky to evaluate.

The former contest went very much to expectations, with 119-rated Izzi Top accounting for Sapphire (now 117), I'm A Dreamer (116) and Up (113) much as the Form Book suggested she might.

The favourite for the Railway Stakes, Cristoforo Colombo, had solid form from Royal Ascot, backed up by a good timefigure, which suggested it would require an out-of-the-ordinary performance to beat him if he was at his best.

Probably did beat him, but there were previously unexceptional performers not far behind, and standards point to the strong likelihood that Cristoforo Colombo underperformed. Probably is rated 107 and Cristoforo Colombo remains on 113.

The aforementioned French Fifteen got a troubled run when only seventh of eight in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly, with Aesop's Fables (rated 121) a surprise winner over St James's Palace Stakes third Gregorian (rated 118). The classic generation of milers are proving an unexciting bunch to date.

Pastorius caused an even bigger surprise when turning over the previously unbeaten Novellist by half a length in the Group 1 Deutsches Derby at Hamburg and has been rated 114.

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