Handicappers' Corner: All roads lead back to Paris for Danedream

The term 'recency bias' is often thrown around in trading circles as a factor in leading to poor decision making and potentially unprofitable trading decisions. It is the term given to the phenomenon where too much importance is placed unnecessarily on most recent events. My colleague Simon Rowlands has recently written a very interesting piece along similar lines.

The betting for this year's King George could be used to argue that it isn't solely in financial markets that recency bias exists. On adjusted Timeform ratings going into Saturday's King George, Danedream had upwards of 3 lb in hand of her rivals judged on her easy Arc de Triomphe win, yet she was sent off at 9/1, fifth favourite in a field of ten.

The reason Danedream went off at a bigger price than a strict reading of her best form entitled her to was because in two runs this season, she hadn't shown the same level of form as she had at Longchamp, her run in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, when finishing last of four, particularly disappointing.

Strictly speaking, Danedream didn't need to return to her very best to win the King George, getting up on the post to edge out Nathaniel by the narrowest margin. Historical standards give a range of 119-127 for the winner of the King George, whilst prior-rating standards point to a figure a little higher. Danedream has been credited with a performance rating of 126+, 4 lb below her master rating. A rating of 126 is the lowest awarded to the winner of the King George since Lammtarra ran to 125 in 1995.

Neither Nathaniel nor St Nicholas Abbey have been allotted ratings suggesting they ran up to their very best either, Nathaniel running to 129+ (rated 131) and St Nicholas Abbey running to 126+ (rated 130). The pace didn't really pick up until after three furlongs, leading to a no more than respectable timefigure of 115, and the field finished quite well bunched, less than four lengths separating the first seven, and even a relatively cautious view of the form has 20/1 shots Reliable Man (up 2lb to 126) and Brown Panther (up 3 lb to 122) showing marginal improvement.

There was other Group 1 action in Europe over the weekend, the Irish Oaks taking centre stage at the Curragh on Sunday. Great Heavens, a full-sister to Nathaniel, maintained her unbeaten record for the season, producing another career-best pitched in at the top level for the first time. She earned a rating of 120p for her three-length victory over Shirocco Star (remains on 115). The Ribblesdale winner Princess Highway and Oaks heroine Was were both below their best, though the latter would have been placed but for meeting interference.

At Hoppegarten, Meandre won the third Group 1 of his career, the Grosser Preis von Berlin, but it was a much weaker race than the King George, the median rating of the field 117 compared to 125 among those who lined up at Ascot, and he didn't need to run to his best of 126, earning 120+ for beating Earl of Tinsdal by a length and a quarter after idling.

Over in France, there was plenty of British interest in the Prix Robert Papin, and they duly filled the first two places, Norfolk winner Reckless Abandon maintaining his unbeaten record to hold off Coventry fourth Sir Prancealot.

Reckless Abandon is now rated 114p, and with two Group 2s on his CV, the Prix Morny is reportedly next on the agenda. More adventurously, connections should consider supplementing him for the Nunthorpe, where the track at York would play to his strengths and he'd receive an overly-generous weight for age allowance.