/ The Brigadier / 23 November 2007 / 1

The Brig has spotted one that will get beat...

14:10 Exeter - LAY - Beat The Boys (Forecast - 2.96)

Today's race is the 14:10 at Exeter, it's a class 3 handicap chase over two miles and three furlongs. Beat The Boys is forecast favourite, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies and ridden by Paddy Brennan.

Beat The Boys won a very weak race last time that was nothing more than a donkey derby, five of the nine runners failed to complete and the form looks poor. He has a 7lb penalty today and is up in grade. That win came on a sharp track as does all of his best form so today's stiff undulating track is unlikely to suit.

This is his second run back after an eight month break and having been given just nine days to recover from his reappearance he is likely to bounce and run below form today.

The drop in trip today is a worry as he is likely to be better over further and he is unproven on the forecast good-soft ground.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has had just the one winner over fences at the track in the last five years and he is unlikely to improve that record with this disgrace of a racehorse.

Sarin and Nanga Parbat can go well in an open race but I will be laying the cretinous imbercile Beat The Boys.

Today's lay finished second

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The Brigadier's Lay of the Day - November 22

14:30 Wincanton - LAY - Shanxi Girl (Forecast - [2.34])

Today's race is the 14:30 at Wincanton, it's a class 4 handicap hurdle over two miles and six furlongs. Shanxi Girl is forecast favourite trained by Phillip Hobbs and ridden by Richard Johnson.

Shanxi Girl won a weak novice hurdle at Exeter last time. She is making her handicap debut today from a mark of 101 and that looks harsh on what she has achieved so far. The win came at the stiff and undulating Exeter track and today's galloping track may not suit.

She has to carry 11-11 and that is 16lb more weight than she has ever carried before. She is a 4yo filly with a big weight on a track that may not suit and is taking on battle hardened handicappers for the first time.

She is unproven on the good-soft ground and the stable dont very often have a handicap debutant winner.

Its an open looking race, Hugo Grand and Maori Legend should both go well but I will be laying the talentless cretin Shanxi Girl.

Today's lay was a faller

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The Brigadier's Lay of the Day - November 21

13:05 Fairyhouse - LAY - Coolcashin (Forecast - 2.28)

Today's race is the 13:05 at Fairyhouse, it's a maiden hurdle over two miles. Coolcashin is forecast favourite, trained by M Bowe and ridden by T Doyle.

Coolcashin won two bumper races last year over two miles before finishing unplaced on his hurdles debut and first run for 12 months last time. He is a potential bounce horse on this second run back after a year out and could be vulnerable in the closing stages of the race after having such a tough debut run.

He is stepping down half-a-mile in trip today and is vulnerable to any horse with a turn of foot over the minimum distance. The horse hurdled very poorly on his debut and does not look a natural at the jumping game.

Woodbine Willy and Square Root should both run big races. Coolcashin is a front runner who likes to go fast early so I will be laying this cretinous imbercile at odds on in running for a low risk bet.

Today's lay finished third

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The Brigadier's Lay of the Day - November 20

15:50 Wolverhampton - LAY - Hoh Watanite (Forecast - 2.8)

Today's race is the 15:50 at Wolverhampton, it's a class 5 handicap and Hoh Watanite is forecast favourite, trained by R Hollinshead and ridden by Russel Kennemore.

Hoh Watanite won over course and distance last time but the 6lb penalty should be enough to stop this dire excuse of a racehorse today.

It's essential he has a strong pace and he is unlikely to get it in this small field and that should be enough to beat him today.

Today's race may come a bit soon just six days after his win last time and he may not show the form in the second time visor.

The two 3year-olds in the race Prince Noel and Hill Of Lujain are both open to improvement and should go well but I will be laying Hoh Watanite.

Tuesday's lay finished first

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The Brigadier's Lay of the Day - November 19

Today's race is the 15:40 at Leicester, it's a class 4 novice hurdle over 2 mile. Rajeh is forecast the short priced favourite, trained by J L Spearing and ridden by Warren Marston.

Rajeh has easily the best form in the race and the highest Official Rating. However at the forecast [1.5], I am willing to bet this horse turns out to be nothing more than a cretinous imbecile and here's why:

He is a 4yo with a penalty in a novice hurdle giving weight away to his rivals. Although he has the best OR in the field on 122, his trainer obviously doesn't think he's up to winning a handicap from that mark, hence why he's sent him to novice company rather than a handicap. Both career wins came on good-firm ground and with all the recent rain the ground is likely to be on the soft side. His only hurdles win came on a sharp track.

The cretin looks 'ungenuine' and has been inclined to hang both left and right when under pressure in races. His only hurdles win from 5 attempts came in a weak maiden race and he was unable to defy a penalty in a Class 4 novice hurdle the next time. The win came over 2 miles, 2 furlongs and he is dropping in trip to 2 mile today, in his previous runs over 2 mile he finished 7/17 and 3/12.

This useless rogue's career victories came in the months of May and August and he may turn out to be a horse who is best in the warmer months, as many horses are. He's been on the go since May over hurdles and also had a tough race in the Ebor on the flat so he may well need a good rest and putting away 'til next spring as his summer form rapidly tailed off last Autumn.

Trainer John Spearing is 0-8 with his course runners in the last 5 years and Warren Marston has only ever ridden the one winner for this trainer. Newcomers Faversham and Genari should go well, but at the forecast odds I will be taking on the abysmal Rajeh.

Monday's lay was a non-runner

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1. mick sturbs | 21 November 2007

   Well done Brig laid coolcashin and backed woodbine willie following your advice
   thank you
   Mick

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