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The Brigadier's Lay of the Day

RSS / / 24 September 2007 / 2

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Evidence suggests 'Tilt' is slanting in the wrong direction...

16:40 Hamilton - LAY - TILT. (Forecast 3.25)

Today's race is the 16.40 at Hamilton. It's a Class 3 handicap over 1 mile, 5 furlongs. Tilt is forecast favourite, trained by B Ellison and ridden by Jamie Moriarty.

Tilt is nothing more than a cretinous rogue. His last win came in May '06 from a mark of 74 in a Class 4 handicap. Since that lucky victory he has ran 13 times and looks held off today's mark of 88.

This is the first time he has carried 10 stone and is likely to struggle to give weight away to more progressive rivals.

The three previous occasions that Moriarty rode Tilt he got beat - and I expect that trend to continue today. A 3 year old has won the last three runnings of this race - it's been a graveyard for favourites with no ante-post favourite ever going on to win.

The winner is likely to be Sadler's Kingdom or Dustoori but I will be laying the ability-challenged Tilt.

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(2)

  1. bc | 24 September 2007


    goodluck today

  2. The Brigadier | 24 September 2007

    Unfortunately Tilt is trading at a much bigger price than the forecast 3.25 I was working from yesterday. It's currently 6.2 and I will not lay at this sort of price unless it is heavily backed into 3.5 or shorter.

    In the 3.50 Kempton - Tropical Strait is worth laying. It's currently 3.1 but may go off a bit shorter. Horse is an absolute swine.

    Godfrey Hoopington-Charles