14:10 Ascot - Bahamas
This obviously looks a very competitive race, full of unexposed and unknown youngsters, so I don't think anyone will be going into it full of confidence. But my colt showed a good attitude to win over this trip at Doncaster, and the runner-up won a York maiden next time out. That win came on good to soft and, unless we get a serious amount of rain, the ground will be a lot faster here, so we don't know how that will suit him.
But he could do no more than win on his debut, so hopefully there is more to come. There will need to be, as two or three in here have shown a higher stand of form so far, such as the likes of Chesham fifth Frankuus, and who knows how much more there is to come from the other unbeaten winners.
14:45 Ascot - How
She is the only maiden in here, and only Cherry Hinton runner-up Magical Fire has more experience than her, so she is up against it. But there are reasons for thinking How won't be disgraced. Firstly, as a sister to Minding, she is bred to be better than she has shown to date and Aidan's juveniles do tend to progress exceptionally well with their racing, as we have seen with Peace Envoy and Roly Poly again this season.
And I do think better ground will suit her, as I don't think she enjoyed the soft when third to her stablemate, and subsequent Albany winner, Brave Anna when I rode her at the Curragh in May.
But I think we could be all playing for places here, as I rode Fair Eva when she won at Haydock. She felt every inch a Group filly there, the form has worked out very well, and she could take a lot of beating, even though the likes of Magical Fire and Kilmah are already proven in this grade.
15:20 Ascot - Von Blucher
I rode him when he won his maiden at Lingfield last season, form that worked out very well. He was slightly disappointing on his return but that was a pretty hot handicap and he may not have been at his best there as he was given a long break afterwards.
However, he was pretty impressive at Newmarket a fortnight ago - a race in which I rode Manson to finish fourth - and the way he travelled through the race, and the ease of the success, suggests that he could still be competitive off a 7lb higher mark here.
But these valuable 3yo handicaps do take plenty of winning, and this is a deeper race than Newmarket.
16:30 Ascot - Highland Reel
I think my colt boasts the single best piece of form in this race, that being his win in the Hong Kong Vase in December. He was very good for me that day, and I don't think many - if any - of this field are capable of beating Group 1 winners Flintshire and Dariyan as he did there.
The problem is that he hasn't quite run up to that level of form since. He definitely needed it first time up in the Sheema Classic, but he was undoubtedly disappointing for me stepped back to 1m2f in the QE II Cup at Sha Tin and then he didn't help Seamie by hanging in the Hardwicke at Ascot last time.
I personally am not too worried about that - perhaps he needed that first run since April and he definitely likes it a lot quicker than it was that day - and in any case a head second to an improving horse in Dartmouth is obviously no disgrace.
I know Dartmouth well, having ridden him to win at Chelmsford and Chester earlier in the season, and to be honest he keeps on surprising me. He is a progressive, straightforward horse who is proven over track and trip and who has to be respected, and the boss must be very happy with him to supplement him for the race even before Postponed came out.
But I do give Erupt a massive chance. He is a Group 1 winner over this trip, was fifth in the Arc, didn't get the best of runs when sixth in the Japan Cup and ran a very promising trial for this race when second at Saint Cloud earlier this month. I would be very wary of him, perhaps more so than Dante winner and Derby fourth Wings Of Desire, though clearly he gets the weight allowance being the only 3yo in the race.
Sir Isaac Newton is finally beginning to come good on his early 3yo promise and showed guts to get up on the inside of Chemical Charge to win last time. But he has his stamina to prove over 1m4f and this is obviously a big step up from that Group 3 win, while it is hard to really enthuse about Second Step and Western Hymn on their recent form.
17:35 Ascot - Wave Reviews
I rode him to win at Salisbury last month and was quite impressed, and the second went on to win a handicap off a mark of 79 next time. So I think a mark of 84 is fair. The problem is that he only beat one home over course and distance on fast ground last month - his maiden win came on soft - and he looks likely to get similar conditions here.
If there is another excuse, I don't know about it yet but perhaps the race didn't pan out ideally for him position-wise, and of course it could have simply been a strong handicap. I do think he is on a fair mark on the evidence of the Salisbury win, though.
16:00 Pontefract - Convey
He has been disappointing on his last two starts but this looks a good opportunity if the rain stays away, even if this track may not be ideal for him. He couldn't handle the soft ground in the Hunt Cup and again didn't run up to his best in the Summer Mile at Ascot last time, so he doesn't come here in the best of form.
But if he returns to the level of his unlucky second in the Hambleton Stakes at York or his neck second to Home Of The Brave in the John Of Gaunt at Haydock then he must have an excellent chance.
If he gets his favoured fast ground and doesn't win, I'd be disappointed, even if he doesn't have that much in hand on official ratings from the likes of Master Carpenter. He wears the cheekpieces again after they were left off at Ascot, which could explain that run, I suppose, and this is a step down in class, too.