Newfangled looks the one to beat here after her very impressive Newmarket debut win a fortnight ago; I rode the fourth in that race and the winner looked a Group horse to me. Equitania will probably be one of the outsiders here, especially as the form of her Ascot second isn't working out too well. The winner hasn't been out since but the third and fourth haven't done much for the form. But I know the stable like her and she will have learned a lot from her first start and the extra furlong will suit, too. But a place is probably as much as we can hope for.
There is not a lot you can say about Astrology here other than that if he runs to the form of his Derby third then he will win. I was impressed with him in the Derby - Camelot was obviously a class apart but I think the placed horses are pretty good too - and that is clearly the best form on offer here. One doubt is that plenty of horses have come to Royal Ascot from Epsom and run below par, but I think I am right in saying that there is a bigger gap between the two meetings this year.
Noble Mission and Thought Worthy look the main dangers on form but I liked Shantaram at Lingfield and I would be inclined to to ignore his unimpressive maiden win last time. And i think it is significant that Wiliam rides him. But if Astrology runs to form, they are playing for second place on what we saw at Epsom. If there is any more rain, that wouldn't inconvenience him on what we saw at Chester.
Maybe would have been favourite for this race, but she is out with a bruised foot. And, anyway, it looks as if all the 3yo fillies are taking it in turns to beat each other over a mile, so this race lacks a stand-out performer. Obviously, Homecoming Queen has a massive chance on her Newmarket win for me and any further rain would suit her, Samitar won well at the Curragh and the second won the Jersey yesterday, and Laugh Out Loud looks a progressive filly too.
But I have an outside chance on Russelliana. That may seem a little hopeful given what she showed us in the Nell Gwyn on her reappearance but she works much better than that and I thought she could develop into to a class filly when second in the Cherry Hinton last season. She has had her problems and the draw doesn't help, but she isn't a no-hoper by any means.
Looked to run ok at York on his reappearance last month. I don't know much about the horse other than that I hear he is working ok, and you always have to respect one of Luca's here. The horse looked very progressive last year and has winning form with cut in the ground too. But it remains to be seen whether he can cope with a 6lb rise in the weights from his Newbury win last season, especially as there are no end of horses in here on a steep upward curve, some of whom are sure to have further improvement to show today.
Estimate goes in to the race with plenty to find on form, but I think she will run ok. She is a not a good workhorse at home, so you wouldn't know how good she is, but she won her maiden at Salisbury well and I think she is guaranteed to stay and run a nice race. Her pedigree is all stamina, and she is from the family of the Aga Khan's that has produced a Gold Cup winner, and an Irish Oaks-French St Leger winner, to name but two. Like I said, she would have upwards of a stone to find with some of these but I think the step up to 2m will bring about considerable improvement.