Patrick Weaver previews the fourth day of Royal Ascot, where he expects the home team to ward off the Yankee challenge in the opening race...
"The extra furlong is a prime consideration in putting up Nayibeth as a lay."
American trainer Wesley Ward fields two of the three market leaders in the Albany Stakes at 14:30, so must fancy his chances of a first win at the meeting this year.
On Wednesday, he hit the bar with Kimari, beaten a head by Raffle Prize in the Queen Mary, but he also hit the corner flag with Foolish Humor, Karak and Anna's Fast - all nearer last than first.
Ward has won three of the two-year-old races over five furlongs at Ascot but has yet to win one over six.
Her draw is not ideal
The extra furlong of the Albany is a prime consideration in putting up Nayibeth as a lay. She is also drawn one, which was not ideal on Wednesday once the rain got into the ground.
The next six in the betting - her stablemate Chili Petin, Daahyeh, Galadriel, Silent Wave, So Wonderful and Jm Jackson - are all drawn closer to the favoured stands side and will hopefully keep Nayibeth out of the first three.
She should stay a mile on her pedigree but laying the 4-1 shot for a place at [2.5] in the Albany is not going to break the bank if she does make the first three.
Next up is the the King Edward VII Stakes at 15:05, a consolation prize for Derby placed horses and also-rans. Three of the eight that line up come on from Epsom, with the Derby third, Japan, favourite at 5-4. Humanitarian, who was seventh, is 16-1 and Bangkok, back in 12th, is 8-1.
It would not occur to me to lay Japan for a win, as he is entitled to be head of the market but Bangkok is worth laying at [3.5] in the place market for the King Edward VII Stakes, especially with Pablo Escobarr likely to be placed.
James Doyle's mount was second to the Derby winner, Anthony Van Dyck, at Lingfield on as soft going as he will encounter in this race. On collateral form, you would expect Pablo Escobarr to finish in front of Bangkok.
There may be an excuse for Bangkok's below-par run at Epsom, but he looked a non-stayer. On the prevailing going I can't see him bouncing back over the Derby distance. Ten furlongs may prove to be his best trip.
With the last two races being handicaps with 28 and 18 runners respectively, I shall keep to the Group races for my third lay. I will take on Jubiloso at [2.2] in the place market for the the Coronation Stakes at 16:20.
She is closely related on her dam's side to Frankel and has won her two races to date - at Chelmsford and Newbury - impressively.
Weak races of their kind
They were particularly weak races of their kind, though. Weaker than the Coronation Stakes for which she is 7-2 despite being up against the first two in the Irish 1,000 Guineas - Hermosa 4-5 and Pretty Pollyanna 9-1 - as well as the French Guineas winner, Castle Lady 13-2. Their respective official handicap ratings are Hermosa 118, Pretty Pollyanna 116, Castle Lady 111 and Jubiloso 101.
My place lay has the lowest rating of the nine runners, yet is second in the betting. Sure, she is unexposed and there ought to be better to come but at around 11-10 Jubiloso is a logical lay in the place market at for the Coronation Stakes at 16:20.
Wherever she finishes, you make money in the long run with this type of lay.
Lay Nayibeth to Place in the 14:30 at [2.50] or shorter
Lay Bangkok to Place in the 15:05 at [3.50] or shorter
Lay Jubiloso to Place in the 16:20 at [2.20] or shorter