Ascot Gold Cup Betting: Blue to be the winning Colour

Matt Gardner
14 June 2012

Colour Vision (right) has joined Godolphin since enjoying a progressive 2011 and looks a strong Gold Cup contender

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Timeform's Matt Gardner takes an early look at the Ascot Gold Cup, set to be run on Thursday June 21...

"The disparity in price between the favourite and both Colour Vision and Saddler’s Rock has no basis in form, and they are the pair to concentrate on..."

June 2009 saw Yeats, trained by Aidan O'Brien and owned by the Coolmore operation, become the most successful horse in Ascot Gold Cup history as he secured his fourth consecutive win in the race. By no means an outstanding stayer in historical terms (contemporary and stablemate Septimus was rated higher by Timeform), he was a thoroughly admirable racehorse who just seemed to keep churning out wins in the big races as he achieved victory in a brace of Goodwood Cups, a Coronation Cup, Longchamp's Prix Royal Oak, the Irish St Leger and a pair of Listed Vintage Crop Stakes.

Ballydoyle looked to have found a ready-made replacement in Age of Aquarius, who finished runner-up to Rite of Passage in the 2010 renewal on his first attempt beyond a mile and three-quarters, but sadly he broke down in the Goodwood Cup later that year and would not see a racecourse again.

Fame And Glory, who finished second to Sea the Stars in the 2009 Epsom Derby, has now taken up the mantle as Ballydoyle's stayer in chief. Successful in the 2010 Coronation Cup, Fame And Glory was stepped up in trip the following year, first in the Vintage Crop and then the Saval Beg Stakes, both of which resulted in wins. He then answered his critics in emphatic fashion when scoring in the Gold Cup, slamming the suggestion that he did not have the stamina required.

Two below-par efforts followed, but Fame And Glory bounced back with aplomb when landing the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day back at Ascot, confirming himself as good as any stayer around. His 2012 winning comeback was highly encouraging, given that he has proven susceptible when returning from a break, as he was able to concede weight to some race-fit rivals in Unaccompanied and Steps to Freedom.

Fame And Glory was awarded a Timeform performance rating of 121 for that win, just 2 lb shy of what he achieved when winning the Gold Cup, so he is likely to be at his best come June 21. However, with very little separating a number of competitors on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, the feeling is that the 2.6613/8 currently on offer may just be a little bit on the skinny side.

Opinion Poll, runner-up to Fame And Glory 12 months ago, is likely to be among his main rivals once more. Trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni, the six-year-old is particularly tough and consistent, running to within 7 lb of his best Timeform rating on each of his last eight starts, including four wins and four seconds. His latest success, in the Group 3 Betfair Henry II Stakes at Sandown, was a comfortable one, quickening clear of his rivals in the final furlong having travelled powerfully; that performance confirmed Opinion Poll as one of the main pretenders to the title, but it is possible that Godolphin have a stronger challenger lurking within their midst.

Colour Vision transferred to Saeed bin Suroor from the Mark Johnston yard after a generally progressive 2011, which comprised a number of handicap victories alongside a third in both the Cesarewitch and the Long Distance Cup. As a three-year-old, his achievements are not to be underestimated, particularly as he was arguably unlucky in the latter race, trapped on the rail as he attempted to gather momentum before having to switch widest of all to make his challenge.

On Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, Colour Vision has just 2 lb to find with Fame and Glory and, given that he may have yet more to offer following an impressive win in Kempton's Sagaro Stakes on debut for Godolphin, he has to rate highly on the shortlist for this contest.

Another four-year-old attempting to break into the established rank of stayers is Saddler's Rock, trained in Ireland by John Oxx. Conqueror of Opinion Poll in last season's Doncaster Cup, Saddler's Rock quickly labelled himself as a pattern-class stayer in the making, beating Opinion Poll completely on merit on just his sixth racecourse appearance.

His return, on softer ground than ideal, at Leopardstown recently was an encouraging one, given that he would likely have appreciated a stronger gallop, and the level of improvement he demonstrated last year is fresh in the mind. Like Colour Vision, he rates a serious threat to the reigning champion as he is unlikely to have finished improving yet and he is currently trading at a fairly attractive price.

The Hamdan al Maktoum-owned duo Nehaam and Thimaar are worthy of a second look, with the latter boasting a similar, if not quite so progressive, profile as both Saddler's Rock and Colour Vision.

Thimaar has progressed through the handicap ranks since stepping up in trip, scoring at Ascot and Kempton over two miles before failing to meet expectations when third to Colour Vision in the Sagaro. He had looked ready to make an impact in pattern company until that point and is best given another chance, although this may be flying slightly too high at this stage.

Stablemate Nehaam is probably not quite good enough to win this, but his fourth to Fame and Glory in the Long Distance Cup last season was a career-best, capping off what was an excellent 2011 for the six-year-old, particularly when considering he did not make the racecourse in 2010. His reappearance effort can be forgiven, as he is the type of horse that takes plenty of winding up and was unsuited by the way that race developed, and, if they go a true gallop for two and a half miles, his consistency means that he is likely to be right in the mix.

Fame and Glory has solid claims of winning this race for a second time, but looking at the current market he is worth taking on, as he is a similar price to 12 months ago in a race which has a stronger feel to it. The disparity in price between the favourite and both Colour Vision and Saddler's Rock has no basis in form, and they are the pair to concentrate on. Both are up-and-coming stayers, who could well have more to offer, but it is Colour Vision who is marginally preferred of the duo, his reappearance win very impressive and the form of that contest working out well, with runner-up Red Cadeaux going on to win the Yorkshire Cup and finish second in the Coronation Cup. The Ascot Gold Cup looks set to be a fascinating event, likely to be just one of the many highlights of the 2012 Royal meeting.

Recommendation
Back Colour Vision @ 7.06/1 in the Ascot Gold Cup
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