Authorized's Arc claims underlined with tremendous Juddmonte effort
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Simon Rowlands /
22 August 2007 /
Simon Rowlands on the opening day of York's Ebor meeting
Where else can one start with a look back over the week's events than with Tuesday's International Stakes at York?
What always promised to be a significant contest looked even more so once Dylan Thomas replaced George Washington as the main Ballydoyle player. It did not disappoint.
On ground that was, the times suggest, more like "good to soft" than "good" for races run primarily on the round course, Authorized consigned his Sandown Eclipse to history in the best possible way.
Had Dylan Thomas got out of a pocket a bit sooner it might have been even more interesting, and there is just the chance that Notnowcato (who seemed to have his mind on other things in the preliminaries) was not at his very best. But I doubt the order of the trio would be different on another day.
Truth be told, Authorized achieved little or no more in winning by a length than he had in winning the Derby by five, and it's probably fair to rate him just inferior to Manduro, who had Dylan Thomas and Notnowcato slightly further behind at Royal Ascot.
But Authorized stays a mile and a half and Manduro may well not, and that counts for a lot with the Arc on the horizon.
Authorized's odds on Betfair of 3.65 for the October 7th contest look about right, whereas I remain against Manduro at 5.5. Soldier of Fortune, the runaway Irish Derby winner, appeals at 11, though it would be good to get a clearer indication of the plans for him.
Soldier of Fortune also figures at 6.4 in the Betfair ante-post market for the St Leger on September 15th. If he ran in that he might very well win it, but that's a big "if". In his absence I would still prefer Aqaleem to Lucarno (not a certain stayer in my book) or anything else that fought out a somewhat bunched finish to the Great Voltigeur earlier on the York card.
The most significant race at the weekend was at Deauville, where Myboycharlie went to the top of my juvenile ratings by landing the Prix Morny in some style from the smart Natagora. in doing so, this very promising horse also went to the head of the Betfair ante-post market for next year's 2000 Guineas at 9.8. However, even before you consider all the things that could go wrong between now and next spring, there are doubts about Myboycharlie's stamina to bear in mind.
Just 11 per cent of the three-year-old offspring of Danetime's wins have come at a mile - the Guineas trip - or more, and there has to be a good chance that Myboycharlie himself is a sprinter.
Later today I will be siding against the favourite Purple Moon in the Ebor Handicap. He has little if anything in hand in terms of form - the ordinary Ballinteni was too close for comfort at Goodwood - and his odds are cramped.
In the circumstances, a place lay (the downside is less painful than an outright win lay) at 2.00 or slightly bigger looks the smart move, given that the Luca Cumani-trained gelding won't have to be much below par to be out of the first four altogether.
I also like Beauty Is Truth at big odds - 20 on Betfair as I write - in the Nunthorpe on Thursday, with the ground more in her favour than it was at Royal Ascot.
However, I'd gladly swap the bet with the smart minds who managed to beat me to all odds between 50 and 100 ante-post on Kingsgate Native in the same race: two-year-olds are favoured by the weights and Kingsgate Native now figures at a much more respectful and realistic 16.5.
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