After hitting the crossbar with last week's Welsh National pick, Adam Baylis returns with a trio of selections for Saturday's action at Kempton Park and Warwick...
"His runner Wishfull Dreaming, 16/1, goes here on his first run for the stable since leaving Philip Hobbs and has a habit of running his best races fresh, his form figures read 211 off a break of six months or more."
Unbeaten in his last five, Waiting Patiently heads the betting for the Listed 2m4f Chase at 14:05 at 2/1. Malcom Jefferson's gelding had some really smart form last season, beating subsequent Grade 2 winner Forest Bihan and Tingle Creek victor Politologue. Both of those victories came on soft ground so Saturday's conditions will be fine and he made a nice re-appearance when readily winning a Listed chase at Carlisle on his seasonal re-appearance. On paper he has absolutely everything going for him but his trainer's record at southern tracks doesn't make for pretty reading.
God's Own, also 2/1, hasn't always looked at home on soft ground and at the grand age of 10 could be vulnerable to an improver. The same can be said for both Josses Hill and Smad Place who despite running some admirable races so far this season could struggle to give 6lb away in these conditions.
Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Nick Williams have won seven of the last ten renewals of the Lanzarote Hurdle at 14:40 between them and all are represented this year. They all merit consideration, particularly Nicholls' Topofthegame, who had some decent form last year but I think this could be another big handicap prize that heads to the up-and-coming Olly Murphy yard.
His runner Wishfull Dreaming, 16/1, goes here on his first run for the stable since leaving Philip Hobbs and has a habit of running his best races fresh, his form figures read 211 off a break of six months or more. Moreover he was consistently well backed for nearly every race he lined up in for Hobbs, never sent off bigger than 4/1 so was obviously thought well capable of racking up a sequence. His new yard has made a habit of improving horses immeasurably this season and this could be another to follow the success of his Grade 3 win with Hunters Call last month.
The Classic Chase at 15:35 has thrown up some big priced winners in recent years but I think this could go to one of the market principals, namely Dan Skelton's Sir Mangan at 6/1. He ran subsequent Grade 2 winner Beer Goggles close over smaller obstacles earlier in the season and made a winning return to chasing for this yard in a well-contested race at Bangor in November. The yard runs at a 22% strike rate at what is considered their 'home course' and likely will have plotted this out some time ago.
Kerry Lee won this race two years ago and she has a live chance with Krackatoa King who is in off the same mark of 127 that her 2016 winner Russe Blanc triumphed from. He's only finished out of the front three on one occasion in eight runs for the yard. And for all that this is a big step up in class, he commands a great deal of respect in soft ground at 9/1 with pilot Richard Patrick's 5lb claim an invaluable asset.
2017/18 P&L: +20.65pts
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