Timeform UK SmartPlays: Wednesday 2 October

Horse clear of the field
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Timeform pick out their best back, lay and smart stat bets on Wednesday...

"...the drop in grade here looks to present him with an excellent opportunity to get his head back in front..."

Timeform on What A Business

Gavi Di Gavi - 17:10 Kempton

Gavi Di Gavi was value for more than the official winning margin when getting off the mark over C&D three weeks ago, still having plenty to do as the field entered the final three furlongs and doing well under the circumstances to win as comfortably as he did, recording a notably fast closing sectional to get on top close home. That represented easily the best effort of his short career to date, and with further progress impossible to rule out, Gavi Di Gavi looks to have plenty going for him in his follow-up bid - indeed, he is 3 lb clear of the field on weight-adjusted ratings, even with a 5 lb higher mark taken into account, and his wide draw is unlikely to be an issue if the same patient tactics as last time are adopted.

Akkapenko - 16:10 Huntingdon

Akkapenko proved at least as good as ever when resuming winning ways at Sedgefield last month, but the balance of his form identifies him as one to take on in his follow-up bid. Indeed, that was his first win in 12 starts since joining the Tim Vaughan yard, and, 5 lb higher in the weights this time round, it's worth noting that he has generally come up short from marks as high as this in the past, with his current odds perhaps overestimating how much he has in hand over his nine rivals. Preference is for Barley Hill, who travelled like one comfortably ahead of his mark when fourth at Worcester on his reappearance and is entitled to strip fitter in what is a much weaker race this time round.

Smart Stat
What A Business - 14:55 Nottingham

21% - Paul Hanagan's strike rate at Nottingham

Paul Hanagan has proved a good man to follow when riding at Nottingham in recent seasons, and he is likely to have high hopes of adding to his tally when jumping aboard What A Business in this valuable nursery. Admittedly, a record of only one win (over this C&D in August) from 10 starts in 2019 may not inspire much confidence, but this son of Gregorian has really thrived on his racing since being claimed by current connections, showing further improvement when second from 3 lb lower at Ayr last time, and the drop in grade here looks to present him with an excellent opportunity to get his head back in front, for all that there are no shortage of dangers in a competitive heat (Streaker, Come On Girl and Danny Ocean perhaps chief amongst them).

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