Timeform US SmartPlays: Wednesday October 15

Timeform
15 October 2014

Timeform's US team provide you with three tips

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Timeform's US team bring you a bet from three different venues on Wednesday...

There are good reasons to believe that Unbridledexplosion will hold the whip hand in race 6 at Keeneland (due off at 20:40 BST), a $58k Fillies/Mares Allowance on dirt at 8.5f. The three-year-old has been a model of consistency this year, winning one, third in another, and second on all her other four starts. More to the point, she has climbed to a useful level of form, posting Timeform form ratings of 95 on each of her last three runs, and showing herself highly effective on dirt at around a mile in the process. None of her 10 rivals can boast as much, though Another Incident and Marathon Lady (at her best) get fairly close. Unbridledexplosion may go off favourite, but deserves to be a short-priced one in our book, and she is put up with some confidence.

Awol Adam has run 16 times, winning four and placing in another four, across two seasons but only once on dirt. He tackles the surface again in race 5 at Hawthorne, an Allowance Optional Claimer (21:45 BST), and the fact that that sole previous attempt came at this track and resulted in a win can be seen to be very much in his favour. His good run of form came to an end recently, but that coincided with him switching to turf - which he is not quite so effective on - and a better effort is anticipated now. He looks to have the measure of his six rivals at his best, with Bells Big Bernie and Flathead River likely to chisel out the solid fractions that will suit his come-from-behind style. Awol Adam may be Awol early in the race, but hopefully not when it really matters.

Race 7 at Charles Town (02:44 BST) promises to be a fast and furious affair, with 10 speedy types (plus four other doubtful participants) having been declared for a 4.5f Allowance race. Getaway Keys has been put in at a short price on the Morning Line, on the back of a good run of form, but is unlikely to get things her way up front with several of her rivals having similar pace-forcing styles. It could set up for something ridden more conservatively, but, rather than trying to figure out which one in that will be in what may be a chaotic event, the smart play looks to be to lay the daughter of Keyed Entry in the belief that circumstances will conspire against her this time.

Timeform US SmartPlays:
Keeneland race 6 (20:40 BST) win back #7 UNBRIDLEDEXPLOSION at 3.02/1 or longer
Hawthorne race 5 (21:45 BST) win back #5 AWOL ADAM at 3.39/4 or longer
Charles Town race 7 (02:44 BST) win lay #9 GETAWAY KEYS at 3.7511/4 or shorter