Timeform's US team highlight bets from Aqueduct and Turf Paradise on New Year's Eve...
The fourth race (18:47 GMT) at Aqueduct has an interesting betting shape to it with the forecast second favourite Speeding Comet open to some improvement clearly after winning a maiden claimer at Churchill Downs last time on just its second start, but a close look at that form suggests he has it all to do here stepping up considerably in grade and with that in mind Lawmaker looks the one to be on. Todd Pletcher's charge has consistently run to a Timeform rating in the mid 80s, significantly above what most of these at their best have achieved, and this represents a considerable class drop after taking on useful company here and at Belmont this year.
Carameaway is sure to be popular in the feature race (19:16 GMT) at Aqueduct, a stakes event for fillies and mares over a mile and half a furlong, having won three of her last four races, but her last two wins have been achieved dictating in small fields and dominating this bigger and deeper contest will be a different matter altogether. Two runs back she finished two lengths behind Flipcup in a valuable event over this trip at Belmont and has to concede 4lb more on this occasion. Flipcup is the class filly in the line-up, having recorded a series of ratings around 105 in decent company in the second half of this season and her latest run when clearly not right in a Grade 3 is best overlooked. She's entitled to start shorter than the 4.5 Morning Line quote and can emerge the better of the pair again.
The main event at Turf Paradise (race 7, 22:41 GMT) is a stakes event over a mile and a sixteenth for three-year-olds and has attracted seven runners, among whom the forecast favourite Twelve Tribes is probably the most talented runner. Talented, that is, assessed on his turf form, on which he holds several of today's opponents, but his dirt form bears no comparison, a distant second place in a maiden claimer at Canterbury his only placing in three attempts on dirt. Twelve Tribes represents a formidable trainer-jockey combination and is sure to be head the market, but pulling off his usual come-from-behind tactics won't be as easy on this fast dirt surface as on grass and he's worth taking on.
Timeform US SmartPlays:
Aqueduct race 4 (18:47 GMT) win back #1 Lawmaker at 3.613/5 or longer
Aqueduct race 5 (19:16 GMT) win back #5 Flipcup at 4.216/5 or longer
Turf Paradise race 7 (22:41 GMT) win lay #5 Twelve Tribes at 2.47/5 or shorter