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Timeform US SmartPlays: Thursday October 29

Timeform's US team pick out the best bets on Thursday
Timeform's US team pick out the best bets on Thursday

Timeform's US team pick out the three best bets on the eve of the Breeders' Cup.

"Miss Valued does indeed look misvalued in the market for the fourth race (18.31 GMT) at Finger Lakes and can get back to winning ways."

Wet weather in Kentucky means track conditions are likely to be sloppy and that should favour Reverend Green in the second race (17.05 GMT) at Keeneland. The three-year-old won at Delaware back in May on a track officially described as sloppy only to be disqualified for causing interference and has run well since when kept to the dirt, particularly at Saratoga two starts back when chasing an overly-strong pace. This seven-furlong trip looks ideal, and though he has been installed as favourite at 3.5, that price still looks value.

Miss Valued does indeed look misvalued in the market for the fourth race (18.31 GMT) at Finger Lakes and can get back to winning ways. The inveterate front runner faces no obvious competition for the lead and will be suited by the drop back to five and a half furlongs. Her trainer Jeremiah Englehart is running at a near 40% strike rate at Finger Lakes and she should be able to build up enough of a lead to fend off a fair field.

The only time Falling Sky, the forecast favourite for the eighth (20.24 GMT) at Keeneland, ran on sloppy going was in the Kentucky Derby but he'll need to be right at his to beat a couple who have very good credentials in these unusual conditions and we are sweet on the claims of Midnight Cello. He's a smart performer on synthetics as well as dirt, but seems in his element in these conditions as he showed when running away with an allowance event at Gulfstream last year. The forecast 4 looks generous.

Timeform US SmartPlays

Race 2 Keeneland (17.05 GMT) win back #6 REVEREND GREEN at [3.2] or longer
Race 4 Finger Lakes (18.31 GMT) win back #1 MISS VALUED at [4.4] or longer
Race 8 Keeneland (20.24 GMT) win back #5 MIDNIGHT CELLO at [3.6] or longer

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