Timeform US SmartPlays: Wednesday November 5

Timeform's US team provide you with three bets
Timeform's US team provide you with three bets

Timeform's US team offer you a bet from three different venues on Wednesday...

It has been well over a year since Morethanawarning won a race, but she looks to have been found a good opening in race 5 at Aqueduct (due off at 19:16 GMT), a $35k claimer at a mile on turf. The daughter of More Than Ready usually runs in better company, and she has run some highly creditable races, notably when fourth three times in a row in more valuable contests between June and September. She disappointed last time, otherwise she would surely have been put in at a much shorter price on the Morning Line than 4/1 third favourite. She is a turf specialist and just needs a decent pace given her closing style. Aesthetique is next in on Timeform form-based ratings, but it will be disappointing if Morethanawarning cannot have her measure in this. 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, given what a low-grade affair it is, there are some disappointing sorts on show in race 5 at Turf Paradise, a $6.5k mile claimer due off at 21:59 GMT. Confisio and Copper Bay dominate the forecast betting, but both were pummelled by 72-rated Murmansk at this course and distance last time and may be risky propositions. The balance of Copper Bay's form is probably slightly better than his younger rival's, for all that he finished behind him that day. All in all, it seems worth taking on Confisio at what looks like being a prohibitively short price. 

The return to a bare five furlongs for the first time since her course-and-distance win in 2013 promises to be the making of Big Belief in the claimer that comes in as race 5 on Woodbine's card (due off at 01:46 GMT). The daughter of Great Notion has struggled at longer distances and in mostly better company since but showed she hadn't lost her way with a narrow second here over an extra half a furlong in April. She had a break after that and can be expected to step up on her two more recent efforts with conditions more to suit. At her best, Big Belief has two or three lengths in hand of her rivals here on form.  

Timeform US SmartPlays:
Race 5 Aqueduct (19:16 GMT) win back #2 MORETHANAWARNING at 3.55/2 or longer
Race 5 Turf Paradise (21:59 GMT) win lay #2 CONFISIO at 2.77/4 or shorter
Race 5 Woodbine (01:46 GMT) win back #6 BIG BELIEF at 4.216/5 or longer


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