Timeform US SmartPlays: Thursday November 13

Timeform's US team provide you with three bets
Timeform's US team provide you with three bets

Timeform's US team provide you with bets from Hawthorne and Charles Town on Thursday...

Keep On Shining is entitled to be favourite in the last (23:50 GMT) at Hawthorne but Paul Darjean's colt still represents some value to our way of thinking at the forecast prices given that he has three things significantly in his favour, namely the best form in the race, that he is taking a big drop in class and that he looks assured of an easy time in front. The last time he was down at this sort of level he won a claimer at Arlington in the summer but he's just as effective on dirt as he showed here two runs ago when going down by a length. This contest is a step down in grade from even that lowly affair, however, and Keep On Shining can get back to winning ways. 

In the opener (00:00 GMT) at Charles Town Extra Talking looks a lay at anything around the forecast 3.5 in her bid to follow up her win in a maiden claimer over course and distance last time. She's usually fast out of the stalls and races handily, but she has to overcome the outside stall today at this sharp circuit in contrast to the inside stall she won from last time, and has far more early speed around her than she has encountered so far, so securing her usual early position might be difficult. She's open to improvement, clearly, having had just four races but even so her form and profile don't entitle her to be as short as she is forecast to be. 

Getaway Keys is an improving three-year-old who has won two of his last three races and can make that three from four in the sixth (02:17 GMT) at Charles Town, an allowance race over four and a half furlongs. Last time out he reversed form with D D's Destiny who had beaten him readily the time before despite having to break from the outside stall and he has the luxury of the inside berth this time. He's been put in at 3 on the Morning Line which seems fair enough given that his two main rivals according to the betting, Pagan Jewel and Royal Fireworks, either find winning near impossible or is out of form. It could be that Nikki Allyn, who is biggest priced of all, will prove his biggest rival.    

Timeform US SmartPlays:
       
Hawthorne race 9 (23:50 GMT) win back #12 KEEP ON SHINING at 4.47/2 or longer 
Charles Town race 1 (00:00 GMT) win lay #9 EXTRA TALKING at 3.814/5 or shorter
Charles Town race 6 (02:17 GMT) win back #1 GETAWAY KEYS at 2.68/5 or longer

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