Timeform US SmartPlays: Thursday July 31

There's a bet tonight at Saratoga
There's a bet tonight at Saratoga

Timeform's US team pick out the best bets on Thursday.

"Today’s best bet comes in race 7 at Penn National..."

The highlight of Saratoga's Thursday card is the Evan Shipman Stakes at 21:42 BST, run over a mile and a furlong. Big Business is likely to start favourite, but is very hard to oppose on the back of a hugely impressive win last time out in allowance company. Prior to that, Big Business was narrowly beaten by the much-improved Zivo, who has gone on to record a win at Grade 2 level. The outside stall could be construed as a negative, but given the early pace that Big Business possesses, he should be able to get across and take up a decent position.

Today's best bet comes in race 7 at Penn National (01:43 BST), an allowance contest over six furlongs. One Fast Chick was an impressive maiden winner on her debut a fortnight ago, tracking the pace before storming clear to win by eight lengths. That performance sets a decent standard in this field, and was backed up by a strong TimeformUS speed figure. There looks to be plenty more to come from this appropriately-named filly as she takes on winners for the first time.

Staying at Penn National, and Sombra de La Luna looks worth backing to break her duck in the maiden claimer that closes the card (02:37 BST). The subject of a highly-positive trainer change using the unique trainer ratings on the TimeformUS site (expressed on a scale of 0-100), Sombra de La Luna moves from a 52-rated trainer to one rated 80. She also comes out top on Timeform form-based ratings, and looks worth backing at anything around 3.5.

Timeform US SmartPlays

Saratoga race 9 (21:42 BST) win back #8 BIG BUSINESS at 3.02/1 or longer
Penn National race 7 (01:43 BST) win back #6 ONE FAST CHICK at 3.711/4 or longer
Penn National race 9 (02:37 BST) win back #7 SOMBRA DE LA LUNA at 3.55/2 or longer

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