Timeform US SmartPlays: Sunday September 14

Timeform
14 September 2014

Timeform's US team pick out their three best bets for Sunday

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Timeform's US team pick out their three best bets for Sunday night's stateside action...

"Lions Bay would be quite a short price for this if coming to the race on the back of his two wins at this course in June, the second of which makes him the clear form pick in our book..."

Belmont's card opens with a $77k Allowance race (due off at 18:05 BST). There are only five runners, but the Morning Line looks to have the wrong favourite, with Snowbell at a shorter price than Shayjolie. Snowbell stepped forward last time with a clear-cut Maiden Special Weight win at Saratoga. However, the fillies she beat that day were nothing out of the ordinary and certainly not of the calibre that Shayjolie encountered in a valuable Allowance on the same course last month. Shayjolie found only the useful Divided Attention (to whom she was conceding weight) too good that day, and a repeat of that form should see her home in front here. The half-furlong shorter distance should not pose a problem given the likelihood of a solid pace.

There are some races of international consequence at Woodbine - including two which feature David Simcock raiders Sheikhzayedroad and Trade Storm - but for a value bet we look to the ordinary 7f claimer that comes as race 8 on the card (due off at 21:37 BST). Lions Bay would be quite a short price for this if coming to the race on the back of his two wins at this course in June, the second of which makes him the clear form pick in our book. He's been beaten heavily twice since, but on both occasions was out of his depth, including in a million-dollar event. This is much more his level, and the drop back to 7f should not trouble him either. All in all, he looks worth chancing at the likely odds.

Daddy's Boy seems to owe his exalted position in the betting for the concluding race at Louisiana (due off at 00:03 BST) to past "glories" (he was once rated 72 on Timeform form ratings) and to a brief revival when winning then finishing second on this course earlier this summer. He has since been comfortably beaten twice, and his drop to a $5k claimer is not the positive it might appear as this looks quite a strong race of its type, as it happens. A number of his rivals should give him plenty to think about at their best, for all that consistency is a rare commodity at this level, and a decent-sized field should mean that Daddy's Boy does not get things his way. He looks worth opposing in the circumstances.

Timeform US SmartPlays

Belmont race 1 (18:05 BST) win back #4 SHAYJOLIE @ 2.6213/8 or longer
Woodbine race 8 (21:37 BST) win back #11 LIONS BAY @ 4.216/5 or longer
Louisiana race 8 (00:03 BST) win lay #7 DADDY'S BOY @ 4.03/1 or shorter