Timeform US SmartPlays: Sunday October 19

David Simcock's Caspar Netscher has a great chance
David Simcock's Caspar Netscher has a great chance

There is strong European interest in North America on Sunday night, and Timeform bring you one bet from Woodbine, as well as a couple from Keeneland..

Caspar Netscher is likely to get the strong pace he needs at 6f, and reports are that the firm ground will ease, which should assist as well...

The presence of a couple of progressive types that have not achieved a great deal to date makes the fifth race at Keeneland (due off at 20:09 BST) an appealing one for betting purposes. Mesoma and Tale of Honor should step up on previous form, but they have some way to go to match the level achieved already by Texas Two Step, who split some useful performers at Aqueduct last time. That was back in April, but Texas Two Step has been getting in plenty of workouts at Delaware and then at this track recently and should be prepped to run his race. He, too, could be open to further improvement after just two runs - the first of which was a good Oaklawn win - but even a repeat of that Aqueduct form could well be enough in this 6f Allowance race.  

It is a big day for British raiders at Woodbine, with Brown Panther and Hillstar looking comfortably best in the $1m Canadian International (due off 20:32 BST) and Just The Judge and Odeliz having realistic chances of shaking up local filly Deceptive Vision in the $500k E. P. Taylor Stakes (22:41 BST). It is another Brit who makes the most appeal from a betting point of view, however. Caspar Netscher, with David Simcock these days, goes in the $300k Nearctic Stakes (21:37 BST) and would have a decidedly live chance if at his best. He's not won since the German 2000 Guineas in 2012, but has run well on his last two starts and looks the equal of a rather underwhelming home team headed by Lockout and Calgary Cat. Caspar Netscher is likely to get the strong pace he needs at 6f, and reports are that the firm ground will ease, which should assist as well. A Morning Line quote of 8/1 underestimates him. 

A big field is in the offing for the 12f listed Rood And Riddle Dowager Stakes, which comes in as race 8 on the Keeneland card (21:42 BST), but most of them are making up the numbers. One who emphatically is not is Caroline Thomas, who can boast two third places in Grade 3 contests this year, as well as a useful win in a valuable claimer and a close-up effort in a Grade 1. She is consistent, as well as classy, in other words, and she is proven at this long distance on turf for good measure. Inimitable Romanee, who beat the selection narrowly at this course and distance in April, is next in on Timeform form ratings, but that one has bombed out in two starts since, whereas Caroline Thomas has thrived. This looks a good opportunity for Caroline Thomas to get back in the winner's circle.   

Timeform US SmartPlays:
Race 5 Keeneland (20:09 BST) win back #1 TEXAS TWO STEP at 3.02/1 or longer
Race 8 Woodbine (21:37 BST) win back #7 CASPAR NETSCHER at 5.59/2 or longer
Race 8 Keeneland (21:42 BST) win back #13 CAROLINE THOMAS at 4.03/1 or longer

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