Timeform's US team advise three bets from Aqueduct on Sunday...
The nature of claiming races in the US means that even horses which appear to possess the best form on paper should be viewed suspiciously in the light of a negative class-drop, a situation that rears its head in race 5 at Aqueduct (19:16 GMT). Broad Rule was claimed for $32k just over a month ago and now plummets into the $10k class for new trainer Diane Balsamo. That raises an immediate red flag, and given his late running style, we would much rather be laying than backing at the forecast price.
The following race at Aqueduct (19:45 GMT), a six-furlong maiden claimer, can fall the way of Yourcreditisgood, who has been running over long trips of late without really convincing that she stays. The drop back to six furlongs, coupled with a sensible class drop from $55k company into the $40k ranks, may be just what she needs to get back on track having shown promising form in the summer.
Depeche Chat has been in great form on turf just lately, but is equally effective on dirt, and he can win his second race in a row since being claimed by David Jacobson two starts ago. Jacobson fields two runners in this Aqueduct contest (race 8, 20:43 GMT) and they will be coupled on the US Tote, but we should be able to take advantage of a better exchange price on Depeche Chat who seems to be in much better form than his stable companion Dyker Beach at the moment.
Timeform US SmartPlays:
Aqueduct race 5 (19:16 GMT) win lay #8 BROAD RULE at 3.55/2 or shorter
Aqueduct race 6 (19:45 GMT) win back #4 YOURCREDITISGOOD at 5.59/2 or longer
Aqueduct race 8 (20:43 GMT) win back #1A DEPECHE CHAT at 4.03/1 or longer