Timeform US SmartPlays: Saturday January 31

Timeform's US team have selected bets from Tampa Bay
Timeform's US team have selected bets from Tampa Bay

Timeform's US team pick out three bets from Tampa Bay on Saturday.

"The ninth race (21.20 GMT) at Tampa has attracted a decent-sized field and some open forecast betting but we are sweet on the chances of Irish Jasper."

Senor Grits has been put in as favourite on the Morning Line for the third race (18.20 GMT) at Tampa Bay but deserves to be and is a confident selection. Very progressive to date, winning at Churchill Downs at today's trip, he then went to Laurel to finish third in a stakes event run in a fast time in which the first, second, fourth and fifth all came out and won next time. A repeat of that effort should easily be good enough here with recent course maiden claimer winner This Boy's Sharp looking a very weak second favourite. 

It's getting on for two years since Thrice Nice last won a race and it's debateable whether the six-year-old mare deserves to be favourite for the fourth race (18.50 GMT) at Tampa switching from turf to a rare run on the dirt. Her problems are as much to do with her deep-closing run style as a lack of ability as she usually finds herself getting going only when the race is over and she is dependent on there being a good gallop to chase. There doesn't obviously appear to be much chance of a pace battle up front on this occasion and though this opposition is a shade easier than she has been encountering, she couldn't take advantage when she last ran on dirt last summer. 

The ninth race (21.20 GMT) at Tampa has attracted a decent-sized field and some open forecast betting but we are sweet on the chances of Irish Jasper. Derek Ryan's filly holds a sizeable edge on form by our estimation, having won three of her four races including a stakes event here last month over seven furlongs without having to run to her best. The daughter of First Defence looks in need of the step up to the extended mile and the expected strong gallop should also be in her favour, so there is every chance of further improvement. 

Timeform US SmartPlays

Race 3 Tampa Bay 18.20 win back #3 SENOR GRITS at 2.68/5 or longer
Race 4 Tampa Bay 18.50 win lay #5 THRICE NICE at 3.814/5 or shorter
Race 8 Tampa Bay 21.20 win back #1 IRISH JASPER at 4.03/1 or longer  


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