Timeform's US team bring you three bets from Aqueduct on Monday...
The drop from maiden special weight company into a maiden claimer is always a powerful angle in US racing, and when that dropper is also top-rated on Timeform ratings, then we have a decent bet. Loaded for Bear is the horse making that big drop, and he runs in the maiden claimer that is carded as race 6 at Aqueduct (19:50 GMT). Second on polytrack on his September debut, Loaded for Bear then disappointed on his first dirt try, but this race is significantly easier and he can get off the mark at the third time of asking.
The following race at Aqueduct (20:19 GMT), a six-furlong, $25k claimer, features another horse dropping markedly in class. Bajan Summer was beaten a long way in allowance company last time out, but prior to that had been a good second over course and distance in a $35k claimer in December. A reproduction of that effort will see him go very close here, and a Morning Line quote of 6/1 underestimates his chance somewhat.
The highlight of Aqueduct's card is the one-mile Jazil Stakes, carded as race 8 (20:48 GMT). Todd Pletcher fields a pair of entries, who are likely to go off odds-on due to being coupled on the US Tote. However, we don't have such problems when betting on the exchange, and can get stuck into the stronger half of the entry, Micromanage, at what should be a bigger price. Consistent at this level, Micromanage has a bit in hand on ratings, and will be very tough to beat.
Timeform US SmartPlays:
Aqueduct race 6 (19:50 GMT) win back #3 LOADED FOR BEAR at 4.57/2 or longer
Aqueduct race 7 (20:19 GMT) win back #7 BAJAN SUMMER at 6.05/1 or longer
Aqueduct race 8 (20:48 GMT) win back #1 MICROMANAGE at 2.89/5 or longer