Timeform US SmartPlays: Friday November 14

Two of Friday's bets come from Woodbine
Two of Friday's bets come from Woodbine

Timeform's US team pick out the best bets on Friday.

"... 8/5 on the Morning Line looks decidedly skimpy for a horse who has done most of his racing on turf (though he has won on this synthetic surface) and has little if anything in hand of three or four his rivals on form."

Despite just six runners having been declared, the $59k Allowance Optional Claimer that comes in as race 5 (due off at 19:16 GMT) looks one of the more competitive affairs on Aqueduct's Friday card. The course Morning Line has the sextet all within the 5/2 to 6/1 range, with Groomedforvictory leading the way. However, on Timeform form-based ratings it is Joe Mooch who looks the one to beat, and the race could set up nicely for him too. The gelding's very best recent efforts have come when tracking the pace, and the three inside him look likely to take each other on. Joe Mooch should be better suited by this return to a mile than when finishing well at just 6f last time. He looks a bet at the likely odds. 

It is one day short of a year since Callmeoldfashion won a race but the gelding looks to have a reasonable chance of bucking the trend back at the course and distance of that maiden success in race 5 at Woodbine (due off at 19:56 GMT). Some of his efforts in the interim have been underwhelming, but he has always been running in races a level or two better than he encounters here. What's more, Callmeoldfashion is a prominent-racer who looks likely to have very little competition early in today's contest. If he runs like he did on his last two starts, Callmeoldfashion will struggle, but if he runs like he did on a couple of occasions this summer he should be very hard to beat. At the likely odds he's worth chancing.    

It should be no great surprise that a horse with three consecutive wins then two close seconds to its name should be forecast to be popular with the public. But there looks to have been something of an over-reaction with the horse in question, Sombrero de Copa, who goes in the Allowance Optional Claimer that features as race 8 on the Woodbine card (due off at 21:23 GMT). 8/5 on the Morning Line looks decidedly skimpy for a horse who has done most of his racing on turf (though he has won on this synthetic surface) and has little if anything in hand of three or four his rivals on form. He also has a come-from-behind style and there is little in the way of obvious pace in this event. A lay of the Mark Frostad-trained gelding looks justified. 

Timeform US SmartPlays

Race 5 Aqueduct (19:16 GMT) win back #6 JOE MOOCH at 3.39/4 or longer
Race 5 Woodbine (19:56 GMT) win back #3 CALLMEOLDFASHION at 4.3100/30 or longer
Race 8 Woodbine (21:23 GMT) win lay #4 SOMBRERO DE COPA at 3.65 or shorter

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