Timeform US SmartPlays: Saturday November 22

Timeform's US team have three bets for Saturday night
Timeform's US team have three bets for Saturday night

Timeform's US team pick out their three best bets for Saturday night's stateside action...

"Four Leaf Chief has been showing superior form by our estimation at Louisiana Downs and Evangeline Downs, winning two of his three starts..."

Delta Downs 20:12 - Four Leaf Chief

With all races likely to be off the turf at Saturday on Aqueduct and not much appealing in the dirt races there, our attention switches to Delta Downs where there looks to be some value in siding with Four Leaf Chief against forecast favourite Contangold in the third race on what is the track's biggest raceday of the year. Contangold has won twice from four starts, including an allowance race here at the start of the month, and this extra half furlong isn't going to prove any inconvenience, but Four Leaf Chief has been showing superior form by our estimation at Louisiana Downs and Evangeline Downs, winning two of his three starts. He has his stamina to prove, having raced at only up to six furlongs so far, but he's by the Preakness and Haskell winner and leading first-season US sire Lookin At Lucky and judged on the manner in which he has been finishing his races there's every chance he'll improve for the longer trip. 

Delta Downs 22:45 - Mystery Train

It would be wrong to say that Mystery Train has been a disappointment in his two North American starts since joining Darrell Vienna, as he could hardly have faced stiffer assignments behind Shared Belief in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar and the Awesome Again at Santa Anita, but his trainer looks to have found the right opening for him in the eighth race at Delta Downs and he looks a steal on his best form (in South America) at the forecast 5. There has to be some trust he still retains all his ability, but given this is a whopping drop in class and he receives 7lb from the forecast favourite Code West (who has only won a Listed race this year) then that chance is well worth taking, not least with Mike Smith an eye-catching jockey booking in the plate for the first time.

Penn National 00:22 - Winning Saga [LAY]

In the fourth race at Penn National Winning Saga really ought not to be second favourite and looks laying at anything around the forecast 4.5. His form figures are quite impressive on the face of it, having finished in the frame in all races since January and won two of them, but his latest success here came when he started one of the shortest -priced favourites at the track all year and this race is an entirely different undertaking altogether. There are at least half a dozen by our reckoning with at least as good a chance on form and the prospect of a pace slug up front further diminishes his appeal. Picking the likely winner is tricky in such a competitive affair, but the odds are it won't be Winning Saga. 

Timeform US SmartPlays

Delta Downs race 3 (20:12 GMT) win back #3 FOUR LEAF CHIEF @ 3.814/5 or longer
Delta Downs race 8 (22:45 GMT) win back #7 MYSTERY TRAIN @ 4.03/1 or longer
Penn National race 4 (00:22 GMT) win lay #3 WINNING SAGA @ 5.04/1 or shorter 

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