Tuesday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's best bets for Kempton and Newcastle

Kempton race finish
Tony Calvin has some recommended bets at Kempton on Tuesday afternoon
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After a winning return to tipping duties on Monday, Tony Calvin is here with selections from Tuesday's meetings at Kempton and Newcastle...

"As you will know if you've been following my tips, I am a sucker for an outsider, so I suggest you chuck a few quid at Hackbridge, at 33/1 each-way in the 17:05 at Kempton."

It was refreshing to be able to focus on just one meeting on Monday, but the action doubles on Tuesday and we have the small matter of 19 races to ponder at Newcastle and Kempton.

Personally, I can quickly rule out a chunk of those as fields full of unraced two-year-olds and unexposed three-year-olds in maiden/novice heats are surely of no use to man or any punting beast - though I am sure the juvenile contests at Kempton and Newcastle will have the gossip cats purring - so that narrows my playing field.

It is not as if these races have no worth. They are clearly invaluable pointers and markers for the future, but they surely have no immediate punting value, unless you are really desperate for a bet. And that is not a good, or profitable, take.

In fact, only the four handicaps are of interest to me at Kempton (by the way, isn't it great that the bookmakers are playing ball and pricing up the races at the 72-hour stage?) so let us focus on them.

Charming Kid is tempting at Kempton

There are a tricky bunch of contests to solve, it has to be said.

Lexington Law interested me most at the initial prices (the first traded price on the exchange was at 12.0) in the 1m2f handicap at 13:35, as he clearly has a lot going for him.

I like the fact that he is primed to take a prominent position from stall three - although I imagine he may have be content to take a lead from either Dawry or Noble Gift on his immediate outside - and he has dropped to a very attractive mark.

Rated 93 at his peak in 2019, he is down to 73 now and his latest third at Lingfield (off 75) indicated that he could be ready to strike now.

He has course winning form (off a 14lb higher mark than this) and I was all set to make him a bet at 8/1+ but I kept on coming back to his form off a break.

Suffice to say that it is pretty underwhelming, and that was enough to put me off in the final analysis, allied to the fact that his odds have crashed into around 9/2 in the last 24 hours. The latter point was the obvious clincher, as betting is all about the price.

It was purely the draw that made me swerve Charming Kid in the 5f handicap at 14:10, for all that I would expect him to be a closer anyway, his best form to date having come over an extra furlong.

He actually has a similar profile to Lexington Law in that he has dropped down to a very exploitable mark - some 23lb lower than his juvenile peak, when he finished third in the Group 2 July Stakes for Richard Fahey - and there were obvious signs of a revival when a close third at Newcastle last time.

If George Downing can ease him into a midfield position from the break and get him settled, he could really be a big factor here, but you have to suspect that he could be playing catch-up all the way to the line from his outside berth, and this could happen a touch too quickly for him.

I admit the 8/1 was still tempting though, given his attractive handicap mark.

Hackbridge has more going for him than his odds suggest

The two obvious ones to concentrate on in the 1m4f handicap at 17:05 are the stable-switchers London Eye and Malika I Jahan - both have gone to excellent yards - but I don't think their odds are that much of a bargain, given some doubts, particularly Harry Fry's new recruit at around 4/1 on the exchange.

As you will know I am a sucker for an outsider, so I suggest you chuck a few quid at Hackbridge 33/1 each way, four places, with the Betfair Sportsbook..

On the face of it, he seemed to have lost the plot, over hurdles and over course and distance on the Flat, in the winter, but he actually wasn't given at all a hard time on the outside here on his latest start in December, so perhaps you can be a bit more positive about that run (which was modest, let's face it) that the formbook suggests you should be.

It has least allowed him to drop to a mark of 71 to get into this 0-72 handicap and that is 1lb lower than when a head second to an improver over track and trip last March.

Kempton draw 2 1280.jpg

He wore cheek pieces that day and they are back on the first time since here, along with an initial tongue-tie, and hopefully he can sit handy enough from his outside draw.

He also has a decent record when fresh, winning after a 170-day break in 2018 and beaten just a head after 10-week break last year.

In short, he has a lot more going for him than his mighty odds suggest, so I will take my chances.

Rocketeer look a very solid form proposition in the 3yo 6f handicap at 17:40 but again the draw is not ideal and this does look a very trappy sprint, with some lightly-raced contenders and four of the field have a first-time headgear angle, too (not that any of the relevant stable stats are particularly bet-inviting).

If in doubt do not force it at this stage of the season, so not for me thanks.

Trevithick has attitude and pace to triumph at Newcastle

The six handicaps at Newcastle are all exceptionally tricky, so I will start, and basically finish, with the horse that stood out to me at the prices on the card.

Step forward, Trevithick in the finale at 18:00. Back him at [17.0] or bigger.

Medal Winner seems to be the buzz horse for this handicap - along with Moll Davis and Cape Cavallii, to a lesser extent - and you can see why, but I really like the win and place claims of the selection at a double-figure price.

Okay, he may not have the sexy profile of the favourite but I loved his attitude when winning over 1m here in a good time in February, really pulling out more when pressed close home, and he only went up 1lb for the victory.

He is a standing dish at the track and has been very competitive off higher marks than his revised level in the past, so I am not worried on that score.

NewcastleFinish1280.jpg

The extra 2f is the obvious issue, as he has three poor runs over 1m2f on his dance card - which is why I am suggesting a win-only bet, as opposed to a 14/1 each-way fixed odds punt with the Sportsbook (who are paying an extra place), especially as the track is riding very slow it seems - but they were back in 2018 and it is well worth trying the trip again. He is by noted stamina influence Champs Elysees after all.

I also like the fact that he could well get a solo in front on the near rail, as there are not a lot of other pace rivals in here. So hopefully his jockey can steady it up a bit in front he can get the lead.

I liked Canagat in the 13:55, Cosmic Law in the 14:30 and Sexy Beast in the 17:25, but neither of the trio's prices was big enough to lure me in. So just the two Tuesday plays.

Good luck.

Check out Betfair's video guide to Newcastle, in association with Timeform...

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