Daryl Carter talks you through Wednesday's racing, catches you up on the latest Oaks news ahead of final declarations this morning, expands his money talk section, and heads to Ayr for race of the day.
"the market is set for a significant shift at 10:30 once the final field is declared, but as it stands, Santa Barbara 3.55/2 heads the market, having taken more than 30% of bets placed on the Betfair Exchange, three times that of her closest rivals."
Noon not to star in Epsom Oaks as final field declared
Sir Michael Stoute trained Noon Star was a prominent feature in the betting market for Friday's Group 1 Cazoo Epsom Oaks but has been hit with a setback with a blood disorder.
She and has been confirmed a non-runner by connections before final declarations this morning.
Of course, the market is set for a significant shift once the money starts moving, but as it stands, Santa Barbara 3.55/2 heads the market, having taken more than 30% of bets placed on the Betfair Exchange, three times that of her closest rivals.
Staggering, considering she has only won a Maiden and was behind Saffron beach when fourth in the English 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket last month - the latter has only taken £5,500.
The race looks wide open, but there is sure to be big money moves against the favourite, who seems to have stalled with her popularity and is as big as she has been for a while.
Friday's line up
Santa Barbara, Divinely, Dubai Fountain, La Joconde, Mystery Angel, Ocean Road, Saffron Beach, Save A Forest, Sherbet Lemon, Snowfall, Technique, Teona, Willow, Zeyaadah.
I'm tempted to continue this conversation, but I am in danger of previewing the race, so perhaps for now, at least let's leave it as a news bulletin.
Timeform knock, knock, knocking on Nottingham's door
The Timeform team continue to bring us, winner, after winner and head to Nottingham today for three of their best bets.
Race of the day
Ayr is our venue for the big race preview, and the focus is on the tricky 15:23 Dream Weddings At Western House Hotel Handicap, where a field of nine go to post - great for each-way punters.
Garden Oasis is sure to prove popular here after two runner-up efforts this season, and this looks to be his level with his three wins coming in Class four or five races.
That said, two of his three wins have come in first-time headgear, and he may have been flattered at Carlisle last time after being held up in a strongly run race?
He has had a couple of these in behind previously, though, and rates solid standard-setter for this contest.
Idoapologise opened up as the market leader, likely due to his somewhat unexposed profile. He was progressive last term before disappointing at Musselburgh, and it was the same story on return at Newmarket - for all that run is easily forgiven.
It does just start to worry me that his best performances have now come at Beverley, and all of a sudden, it feels like he has something to prove?
Hijjam has been overlooked by the market, likely due to his poor effort at Musselburgh last time, but that came on soft ground and took his record to 1-7 (win coming here at Ayr) under those conditions.
He shaped as though he needed the return run (never won off a break) under an inexperienced rider on a rare blip at this course, and we haven't seen the best of him this season yet.
You would hope for a better performance now fully fit, returned to a sounder surface, and back at this Ayr track .
His form figures here at Ayr read 72251211, and he has a course and distance win off a 4lb lower mark in a stronger race than this as recent as last term. He is the most tempting option in a trappy heat.
Rhys Williams backing veteran to score at Cartmel amongst his array of selections today
Our daily tipster Rhys Williams continues in his search for value and has five selections around the country.
Stat of the day
Trainer jockey combo - Trainer Mike Murphy and Jockey Daniel Muscutt have a 28% strike rate when teaming up on the all-weather. They combined today - 17:40 Kempton - Le Reveur.
Money Talk has been expanded today to include some more information - basically to stop those having a winge on socials.
Anyway, which horses are the Betfair customers backing today at significant odds? - no one wants to know a 9/4 shot into 6/4 do they? It's boring.
13:13 Ayr - Torbain Castle 29.028/1 into 8.415/2 - Iain Jardine newcomer in the 6f Maiden contest has also seen heavy support on the Sportsbook and is as short as 4/1. Expected BSP via Exchange 8.4.
15:10 Nottingham - Mister Parma 25/1 into 9/1 - Has failed to finish better than 10th in his last seven runs since 2018, Hollie Doyle booked.
15:23 Ayr - Hajjam 16/ into 5/1 - Goes well at this venue and only Idoapologise has taken more money on the Exchange markets.
19:20 Kempton - Daphne May 33/1 into 12/1- Trained by Adam West and has form figures of 1 and 2 at Kempton.
20:00 Ripon - Wynford 40/1 into 16/1 - Returning from a 156 days off the track for new connections - Has seen just £26 matched on the Exchange so could possibly be a late drifter.
Dudman rolling his double dice at Ripon
Al Dudman has found a hot looking double at Ripon this evening and his selections are boosted everyday on the Betfair Sportsbook, and today's is a whopping 80/1!
The Epsom Derby festival is almost upon us with day one final decs out this morning.
Of course, the Epsom Oaks is the feature on day one, but it's hard to get over-excited about a Maiden winner at the top of the market.
Yes, Santa Barbara is open to significant improvement but so are most of the field.
She's hardly a bet at the price of 9/4, though, and she will probably be shorter than that come midday today.
The race does have a weak look to it this year, but if you feel like me and are uninspired by the market leader, don't just back her in fear of missing out.
I cannot listen to all the "stable talk" and the horse being pushed by the mainstream media - that route never tends to end well.
There are plenty of bigger-priced horses in the market that may be worth chancing with similar credentials, and let's face it, it's more exciting.
I am at a stalemate with myself at the moment. I do like Save A Forest at a wild price. She has improved with each run and shaped as though this extra distance and a strong pace would positively suit at Lingfield - I also think Snowfall should be the market leader, so she could be the play.
Until tomorrow, be lucky.
Follow Daryl Carter on Twitter @DarylCarter7
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