Timeform Radio Tip: Take Time To Think at Warwick

Rory focuses on the jumps meeting at Warwick for Thursday's bets

Rory Delargy is on duty on Timeform Radio on Thursday, and heads to Warwick for his best bet...

"The one who really jumps off the page is Time To Think, who won twice on testing ground last season, and caught the eye on her return at Lingfield, finishing third to Wychwoods Brook under a more patient ride that usual. She's not one to do anything quickly, but responds generously to pressure, and the booking of Tony McCoy in place of usual partner Andrew Thornton takes the eye."

Today's jumps action looks to lack the obvious signposts of Wednesday's remarkable action, in which there seemed to be more plots than an Eastenders Christmas Special. On the other hand, some of us prefer the mundanity of a midwinter meeting at Warwick, where my best bet presents itself.

The handicap chase at 14:20 is an intriguing affair, with reasons to be interested in several runners; both Have You Seen Me and Gentle Bob have been given a chance by the handicapper, the former having had valid excuses last time, and the latter allowed to race off the same mark as when scoring on his latest start dues to a long absence. Brody Bleu's failure to complete at Uttoxeter last time came over a trip he failed to stay, so shouldn't count against him, and Saints And Sinners is a horse in focus having been looked after on his chase debut for the shrewdest man in Yorkshire, Mick Easterby.

Having said all that, the one who really jumps off the page is Time To Think, who won twice on testing ground last season, and caught the eye on her return at Lingfield, finishing third to Wychwoods Brook under a more patient ride that usual. She's not one to do anything quickly, but responds generously to pressure, and the booking of Tony McCoy in place of usual partner Andrew Thornton takes the eye. Time To Think has never finished out of the frame in her ten starts over fences, and the form of that Lingfield race suddenly looks very solid, with the winner landing the Peter Marsh Chase at the weekend, and the pair who finished immediately behind her both running well in defeat next time. She appeals as capable of better yet, and with a couple of confirmed pacemakers in opposition, she should have this race run to suit her grinding style. I expect her to trade a bit bigger in running, and may look to top up at a few clicks above her returned BSP once the action gets under way.

The stayers' event at 13:50 should be an attritional affair given the deep ground, and it may pay to take a chance on Incentivise, who needs a proper test of stamina to show his form these days. Warwick suits him ideally as the emphasis is so much more on jumping than speed on the flat, and this plodder has a very respectable course record, making the frame on all three visits. Those runs have all come over a couple of furlongs further, but it's hard to imagine that stamina won't be tested to the limit, and with Dark Glacier, Only Witness, Present To You and Bally Sands all having a prominent running style, something will have to give in front. Like Time To Think, he's likely to be off the bridle before most of his rivals, but he keeps plugging away, and ought to reward each-way support at a decent price. 

There may be an angle to be had in the hunter chase (15:50), too. The odds-on favourite Little Legend is a thoroughly likeable type, but hasn't achieved a huge amount in winning both his starts in hunters to date, and is surely vulnerable conceding weight all round. He would certainly struggle to cope with the Carronhills of old, and Paul Tolman's charge was an excellent fourth behind no less than Kauto Star on his penultimate start. That came nearly 3 years ago, but it's heartening that he remains in the same ownership despite having left Rebecca Curtis, and the son of Old Vic had looked destined for the top in this sphere as a novice before injury intervened. It would be surprising if connections were persevering without some sign of promise at home, and he's too big to ignore in the betting given his back-class.

Recommendations:

All at Warwick

Back Incentivise @ 20.019/1 in the 13:50

Back Time To Think @ 3.953/1 in the 14:20

Back Carronhills @ 8.415/2 in the 15:50

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