Timeform Radio Tip: Pavlosk can come in from the cold

Richard Fahey will be laughing if Kiama Bay continues his recent resurgence at York (13:55).

Rory Delargy is treading carefully at a rain-hit Knavesmire...

"Pavlosk was most impressive when winning the Michael Seely Memorial over 1m here in May, and has shaped much better than the result on fast ground at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood since, doing too much too soon in the Coronation Stakes, and then conversely left poorly positioned from a difficult draw in the 7f Oak Tree Stakes last time."

With heavy thunderstorms hitting York last night, and the threat of further rain hanging over the meeting, punters need to have their wits about them. Looking for horses proven on dead ground or worse is crucial, and will help to eliminate many fancied runners who arrive on the back of form on a fast surface they won't be getting today.

Few in the opening contest (13:55) are fully effective with cut, and favourite Winterlude looks one to avoid under the conditions, particularly as he also has stamina to prove. Gospel Choir is potentially a cut above these rivals, but an absence of nearly a year is off-putting, and he's also passed over, and if that pair can be ruled out, the race looks most attractive from a betting viewpoint.

The only runners in the field to have shown solid form with ease in the ground this summer are Party Line, Tepmokea, Kiama Bay, Scatter Dice and Rio's Rosanna. The first-named hit 1.01 when running over 2 miles here earlier in the week, and has been a best bet before, but is reluctantly left out as the drop back in trip looks a negative, especially as the pace may well be a steady one. Tepmokea and Rio's Rosanna have shown some of their best form over C&D, and need respect, while Kiama Bay beat Scatter Dice on similar going at Chester last weekend, having also got the better of Rio's Rosanna at Pontefract the time before.  

Richard Fahey's charge has work to do to confirm form with those he's beaten narrowly on his last 2 starts, if weights and measures are a solid guide, but on both occasions he's had to come from off a steady pace before winning more comfortably that the bare margin, and he looks right back to his best now. Having been beaten just a head in this corresponding event off a mark of 95 in 2011, his current mark (including a penalty) of 89 is far from harsh, and he can continue his revival at rewarding odds. Include the others mentioned in combination exactas to boost returns.

In the Strensall Stakes at 15:05, the return to easy ground can see Pavlosk back to winning ways for Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore. The Arch filly was most impressive when winning the Michael Seely Memorial over 1m here in May, and has shaped much better than the result on fast ground at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood since, doing too much too soon in the Coronation Stakes, and then conversely left poorly positioned from a difficult draw in the 7f Oak Tree Stakes last time. She's sure to appreciate the step up to 9f now, and if readapting a prominent racing style, should be well placed to pounce as things get serious. She gives the impression there's much more to come when getting her conditions, and looks a rock-solid investment at 2/1 or bigger.

Recommendations:

Both at York

Back Pavlosk @ 3.052/1 in the 15:05 (NAP)

Back Kiama Bay @ 14.013/1 in the 13:55 (NB)


    

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