Timeform UK SmartPlays: Thursday 21 November

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Timeform pick out their best bets on Thursday

Timeform pick out their best back, lay and smart stat bets on Thursday...

"...an opening mark of 93 looks lenient based on her juvenile form..."

Timeform on Red Impression

Back
Big Daddy Kane - 15:00 Newcastle

Home Before Dusk has recorded all four of his wins at this track, so he clearly has an affinity for it, and the step back up to a mile and a quarter won't be a problem, so there is plenty to like about his chances. However, in the shape of Big Daddy Kane he faces a younger horse who is at the opposite end of the handicapping spectrum. He has shaped well on all three of his starts in minor events on the all-weather this year, showing his best form when runner-up to a potentially smart type at Wolverhampton last time, and he may have been let in lightly on handicap debut.

Lay
Dundrum Wood - 12:25 Market Rasen

An expensive purchase from the pointing field - cost connections £270,000 after winning an Irish point - Dundrum Wood has been sent off an odds-on favourite on both starts under Rules, and will likely be over bet once again here. Admittedly, he has shaped with promise on both occasions, including when runner-up on hurdling debut over two miles here last month. The extra two furlongs now will help, but there are some other promising types in here, and it could be wise to take Dundrum Wood on here.

Smart Stat
Red Impression - 16:05 Newcastle

15% - Roger Charlton's strike rate with handicap debutants

A competitive sprint handicap where a case can be made for several, but the one horse that makes the most appeal is Red Impression. She looked a pattern-class performer in the making when winning over six furlongs at Lingfield around this time last year, breaking the two-year-old course record without coming off the bridle. Admittedly, things haven't quite gone to plan since, but she was drawn badly on her return at Chelmsford, and it is probably best to ignore her two runs since on the turf. The return to a synthetic surface can stand her in good stead and an opening mark of 93 looks lenient based on her juvenile form.

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