Today's racing isn't up to the standard of last week when Tony Keenan advised a winning bet on Fine Rightly at 5.2, but there are still a trio of races that offer decent bets...
"I really like the claims of Articulum here. He was notably strong in the market at the Punchestown Festival despite coming up against representatives from three powerful bumper trainers in Mullins, Pipe and Weld. Finishing a good third, he shaped better than the result as he raced wide and was keen and that form looks both strong and deep."
It's not your typical Sunday fare in Ireland this week, the racing relatively low-key ahead of next week's jumping spectacular, but the action at Thurles is not without interest and three races make betting appeal.
Thurles 14:10 - Patsio looks on a good mark
It's easy to see the case for Desoto County off 116 with Jack Kennedy claiming five pounds; the Rooney horses leaving Donald McCain are winning plenty and Gordon Elliott has few peers with stable switchers. Like many in his old yard, Desoto County had a down season in 2014/15 but his form in bumpers and novice hurdles with the likes of Irish Cavalier, Stellar Notion and Wuff would have him well-in off this mark. The concern is the price, already around 3.613/5 and shortening, and he's reluctantly passed over.
The ground is a bit slow for Cliffside Park and he got a hefty 11lbs rise for last time while Daliyan looks summed up by his mark. Patsio however could be well-in off 118, though. His Galway third, giving weight to the subsequent graded winners Long Dog and Three Stars, reads well and while he disappointed at Tramore next time, where jumping errors caught him out. He was in fine form in handicaps before that and could get back on an upward curve here.
Thurles 14:40 - Woman the Perfect solution
Both Just Cause and Conal have won ordinary maiden hurdles at best and I prefer the claims of the serial winner Perfect Woman. She looked ill-suited by the drop to two miles on Monday and this trip is much better for her. It's a slight concern that she backs up so quickly after a hard race but she did win twice in four days last month and she looks the most likely winner.
At a bigger price, The Westerner Boy is worth a saver to minimum stakes. It could be significant that Barry Geraghty is over to ride him though equally it might just be a case that he's home ahead of the Christmas festivals. Either way, the horse has the form to win this weak affair, notably his close second to Thunder And Roses in March of last year, and he was entitled to need the run last time.
Thurles 15:40 - Articulum can beat overbet Mullins favourite
If there's a spot to oppose a Willie Mullins horse in a bumper, then it's second time up after a placed effort. Since 2010, his strikerate in Irish bumpers with such horses is an excellent 33.7% but the actual over expected is only 0.77 (his overall actual/expected with all bumper runners in this period is 0.98) which suggests this group is overbet. That makes sense; they're obvious likely winners from the top yard with a good recent effort but the numbers suggest the Mullins bumper horses are actually more likely to win first time out.
In any case, I'm not sure his Merry Night will be suited by this four furlong drop in trip after a staying on effort last time. Jury Duty is the obvious alternative but his maiden hurdle run looks only fair though we'll get an idea of its value from the run of Cahirconree in the previous race.
I really like the claims of Articulum here. He was notably strong in the market at the Punchestown Festival despite coming up against representatives from three powerful bumper trainers in Mullins, Pipe and Weld. Finishing a good third, he shaped better than the result as he raced wide and was keen and that form looks both strong and deep. The winner is already a graded class novice hurdler while the second has the potential to be such, while much further back were recent winners Arkwrisht and Edwulf, albeit the latter of the moral variety! Articulum's trainer may have spotted a niche here and is running his best bumper horse before the hot Christmas competition kicks in next week and he's well worth backing.
1 Point Back Patsio @ 9.28/1 or bigger in the Thurles 14:10
1 Point Place Back Patsio @ 2.68/5 or bigger in the Thurles 14:10
1 Point Back Perfect Woman @ 3.55/2 or bigger in the Thurles 14:40
0.5 Point Back The Westerner Boy @ 9.28/1 or bigger in the Thurles 14:40
1.5 Point Back Articulum @ 15.014/1 or bigger in the Thurles 15:50
1.5 Point Place Back Articulum @ 3.814/5 or bigger in the Thurles 15:50