Tony Keenan was in fine form last Sunday with three winners from four bets. He's back with three selections for today's competitive card at Leopardstown...
"At the prices, Not For Burning stands out. She had some really good form back in 2013 and 2014 that would say she is better than a 116 mare and I like how she has been gradually brought back to form after an injury; a big run too soon off long time off can set a horse back."
I previewed this excellent card during the week elsewhere on the site and am happy with my picks, particularly in the Leopardstown Chase at 15:00 where both Fine Rightly and Los Amigos are shorter than they were midweek.
I considered putting up Fine Rightly again as his price still looked value but Pricewise has caused a contraction overnight and I'll concentrate on the two other handicaps instead.
Leopardstown 13:50 - Foster's mare can Burn them off
This staying handicap hurdle lacks depth but I don't like the favourite Gallant Oscar at 3.02/1; the higher-rated chaser reverting to hurdles can be an overbet angle, all the more so when representing the McManus/Martin axis. He's on a fair hurdles mark judging by his second to Sort It Out last season but I suspect he is being trained with one race in mind and that is at Liverpool in April.
Childrens List has obvious claims. Ruby gave him a poor ride at Navan in November, slow to ask for his effort coming down the hill and meeting trouble as a result and the horse finished with running to give. That looks strong form with Prince Of Scars winning a Grade 1 since but there remains a slight stamina doubt and he prefers decent ground. At 5.59/2, he might be worth a saver though.
At the prices, Not For Burning stands out. She had some really good form back in 2013 and 2014 that would say she is better than a 116 mare and I like how she has been gradually brought back to form after an injury; a big run too soon off long time off can set a horse back. Though she was unharried in the lead last time, she still came home in a relatively quick closing sectional and second and third both have races in them over hurdles. A seven pounds rise for that is lenient and I expect this proven stayer to go well.
Leopardstown 14:25 - Colla Pier and Ancient Sands two to note
Henry Higgins was my pick for this earlier in the week and he can go well. I had hoped to add After Rain to the team but Barry Geraghty's decision to ride Shay Barry's gelding put paid to that as he's now clear favourite at 7.26/1; the jockey has gotten down a notably low weight, below his lowest in the last year in fact, to ride.
That leaves Colla Pier and Ancient Sands from my initial shortlist with Ice Cold Soul a non-runner and both are worth backing to small stakes. The hitherto frustrating Colla Pier has found consistency this season, not out of the two in her last five starts, and put up a notably quick closing sectional in winning her penultimate start at Punchestown. That form hasn't really worked out but she backed it up with a good second to Tea In Transvaal in a listed race next time, again travelling strongly, and this big-field handicap should suit her run style.
I suspect Geraghty would have had no decision to make regarding a ride had Copy That been entered in the race, that one looking among the most progressive handicappers around, but the horse that was second to him last time shouldn't be underestimated. Ancient Sands was better than the result that day too, in front plenty soon enough and seemingly idling, and he is a big price at 38.037/1.
1.5 Point Back Not For Burning @ 11.010/1 or bigger in the Leopardstown 13:50
1.5 Point Back Not For Burning @ 3.55/2 or bigger in the Leopardstown 13:50
0.5 Point Back Colla Pier @ 22.021/1 or bigger in the Leopardstown 14:25
0.5 Point Back Ancient Sands @ 38.037/1 or bigger in the Leopardstown 14:25