Tony Keenan advised backing Castle Guest last week who returned at a Betfair SP of 15.92 in victory at the Curragh and is back with five selections on the all-weather at the Dundalk today...
"The case for Hurricane Cass is simple – he’s a course specialist that has upside back on this surface after two runs on turf. The handicapper has given him a chance in dropping him two pounds for his last outing at Naas when he met trouble in running and he’s much better judged on his all-weather runs, both of which he has won well."
Today presents an unusual test for Irish punters with an afternoon card at Dundalk in summer; the track typically hosts evening meetings that keeps the flat scene going in mid-winter. There are a few horses from those fixtures running this afternoon but they are probably worth opposing as they have done their winning in largely uncompetitive races, so it might be worth concentrating more on the summer types.
Dundalk 14:40 - Lady can prove Mega back at five
Lady Mega should be hard to knock out of the frame here. Consistent throughout 2016, she possesses good course form, having won two of her five starts at Dundalk. It is her last run in a Naas Listed race that makes her a bet here as she caught the eye in finishing fourth. She reared leaving the stalls but travelled sweetly among horses, going like the minimum trip specialist she is, before not lasting out over the sixth furlong. This drop back in distance is ideal and some of the other fancied runners have holes; Seychelloise comes off a break and seems better over further, Primo Uomo lacks fight in a battle, Tylery Wonder prefers a straight track and Shanghai Beauty is unproven on the surface.
Dundalk 15:10 - Strong pace will suit Russian Soul
Even with Chiclet a non-runner, this one should be run at a searing gallop with the likes of Abstraction, Tribal Path, Tithonus and Seanie all tending to race from the front. That should suit the favourite Master Speaker but he is difficult if not impossible to win with. Preference is for Russian Soul who seems better here than anywhere else these days.
The six-time course winner produced an excellent effort over an insufficient five furlongs last time, meeting trouble early in the straight but finishing well, and the handicapper has dropped him 2lbs for that run. He isn't a potential horse but there aren't many (if any) of those in here and is the most likely to run his race with a mark of 101 exploitable.
Dundalk 15:40 - Winter can improve on last time
Winter was a disappointment to some when a beaten favourite at Gowran last time but that came at a time when her yard were struggling for winners and she may have needed the outing; it was her first run in roughly eight weeks. Her debut form when third at Naas is strong; the winner won a listed race next time and the fourth, fifth and sixth have all won maidens. The surface should not be an issue for Winter; her dam won her sole start on the all-weather easily.
Dundalk 16:15 - Take Cass and Humour against the rest
The case for Hurricane Cass is simple - he's a course specialist that has upside back on this surface after two runs on turf. The handicapper has given him a chance in dropping him two pounds for his last outing at Naas when he met trouble in running and he's much better judged on his all-weather runs, both of which he has won well. The booking of Killian Leonard is a plus; he's perhaps the best value 7lb claimer around.
Ringside Humour should also be kept on side. She's in the form of her life and probably would have won the premier handicap on the Friday of Galway but for being hampered into the straight. Her last run at Sligo was also very good as both the ground and trip were against her. Seriously well-handicapped she isn't, but she seems sure to run her race.
1 Point Back Lady Mega @ 4.84/1 or bigger in the Dundalk 14:40
1 Point Place Back Lady Mega @ 1.75/7 or bigger in the Dundalk 14:40
1 Point Back Russian Soul @ 7.413/2 or bigger in the Dundalk 15:10
1 Point Back Winter @ 2.89/5 or bigger in the Dundalk 15:40
1 Point Back Hurricane Cass @ 13.012/1 or bigger in the Dundalk 16:15
0.5 Point Back Ringside Humour @ 9.08/1 or bigger in the Dundalk 16:15
Flat Season P+L: +13.3 points