Sunday Irish Racing Tips: We should have Ahlittleluck on good ground

It'll be a cold Leopardstown this afternoon but Tony Keenan hopes to warm things up with a winner
It'll be a cold Leopardstown this afternoon but Tony Keenan hopes to warm things up with a winner

There's some of the best handicap action of the jumps season at Leopardstown today and Tony Keenan has previewed the card for betting.betfair.com readers...

"Ah Littleluck is overpriced. A progressive sort early last summer, there was promise in his return at Navan on Troytown day in what was a strong race. The ground was just too soft for him at Cork last time."

1 Point Back Ah Littleluck @ 13.012/1 or bigger in the Leopardstown 15:40

By his own high standards, it has been a quiet January for Willie Mullins with five winners from 31 runners up to and including yesterday. For context, he had 20 winners from 65 runners in January 2016 so perhaps his Christmas fireworks came at a cost and it is notable he has no runner in either the second maiden hurdle or the bumper today. This has contributed to a rare outbreak of competitiveness in Irish national hunt racing thus far in 2017; 30 individual trainers have already won races, which is pretty good considering there have been only eight meetings.


Leopardstown 13:10 - Dutch Away and Jelan in the first

The Bargy Lady/Toe The Line form line takes up a chunk of this market but it may not be that strong; both were well-beaten by Montana Belle and the handicapper looks to have the Kiely mare right with a rating of 113. If there is one to come from that race, it could be Awayinthewest who gets a big jockey upgrade now. She raced quite wide that day and was given a bit to do, finishing with running to give.

Jelan is worth backing too. She was decent in bumpers and the subject of a strong gamble last time which takes a bit of doing on December 26th. In a slowly-run race, she was left out of her ground but finished well and sectionals suggested she was the third- or fourth-best on the day rather than the sixth. That looked a decent race and while her jumping wasn't great it is hoped she will improve for the experience.


Leopardstown 14:10 - Mome the place value

Yorkhill looks pretty short here and I wouldn't be surprised if he is made to work harder than his price suggests. I doubt it will be Anibale Fly that will test him however as the form of his first two wins have been devalued while he jumped poorly in the Kauto Star at Kempton. Gangster is respected after being narrowly beaten in a hot maiden chase last time but at the prices I like Bellow Mome to place.

He was impressive on chase debut at Thurles after which Willie Mullins said he would like better which he gets here. His eighth place finish over Christmas looks ordinary but he was a big eye-catcher; he made a bad mistake just away from the stands which set him to jumping poorly but did very well get back into the race down the back before another error three out ended his chance. If he can jump better, he should go well and the drop in trip is a plus.


Leopardstown 15:40 - Good going to suit Ah Littleluck

This is a relatively weak race for the day that's in it and the fancied ones look vulnerable; Diamond Cauchois likely needs softer ground and is inconsistent overall, Brightest Flame beat a horse that was stopping last time while Woodford Island is temperamental. I can see cases for both Oscar Sam and Kilcarry Bridge but the trip may stretch that pair.

Ah Littleluck is overpriced. A progressive sort early last summer, there was promise in his return at Navan on Troytown day in what was a strong race. The ground was just too soft for him at Cork last time - his jockey gave it as an excuse to the stewards after the race - but this surface should be much better with the tongue-tie a further plus.


Recommended Bets:
0.5 Point Back Awayinthewest @ 6.611/2 or bigger in the Leopardstown 13:10
1 Point Back Jelan @ 7.06/1 or bigger in the Leopardstown 13:10
1 Point Place Back Bellow Mome @ 6.05/1 or bigger in the Leopardstown 14:10
1 Point Back Ah Littleluck @ 14.013/1 or bigger in the Leopardstown 15:40
1 Point Place Back Ah Littleluck @ 3.814/5 or bigger in the Leopardstown 15:40
http://btfr.co/129248769


National Season P+L: +2.16 points

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