Sunday Irish Racing Tips: Sundae to provide value in Boyne Hurdle

Three graded races at Navan today where there should be some Cheltenham clues
Three graded races at Navan today where there should be some Cheltenham clues

Tony Keenan advised three of the Grade 1 winners at Leopardstown last weekend in Mega Fortune, Disko and Sizing John and is back with his thoughts on a classy card at Navan this afternoon...

"Consequently, Supasundae looks a bet to place. As is often the case, the horse that was the immediate victim of a race-winner is underrated in shoulder markets when they re-oppose; I’ve seen this called by the Sizing John theory by Andy Gibson following that one’s tendency to chase home Douvan."

2 Points Place Back Supasundae @ 2.47/5 or bigger in the Navan 15:10

The experience of 'a day at the races' at Cheltenham has been in the news this week with the launch of a report about the economic impact of Irish racegoers at the meeting along with the announcement that tickets for Gold Cup day are sold out. One can only imagine the outrage were this experience taken away from racing fans yet this is exactly what the Curragh racecourse has done with this year's Irish Derby meeting and the second day of Irish Champions Weekend.

The Irish Field yesterday carried a news item that the attendance at those meetings will be capped at 6,000 in 2017 due to health and safety restrictions with the numbers at the respective cards having been 18,244 and 9,255 last year. You can quibble those figures if you like, and you might be right to do so, but that's 15,499 people who attended a pair of meetings in 2016 that can't go this year.

This is making me angry - perhaps irrationally so - but I love going racing and Irish racing is in no position to be turning away racegoers who want to attend. They're restricting attendances at a time when it's hard to get bodies through the gate and it simply looks a case of a racetrack that is not fit for purpose in its current state. If the course themselves haven't the sense to see that then it's time for Horse Racing Ireland to step in. Anyway, to cheer myself up, I'm off to Navan for the afternoon where I'm pretty sure I'll get in!


Navan 14:40 - Side with the potential of Ballyoisin

The wheels have come off Identity Thief in his last two starts, as much through bad luck as anything, but the form of his last completed start beating Ordinary World is, well, ordinary and he has nine pound penalty to contend with too. Reading into his trainer's comments, it seems that getting his confidence back will be the main aim too.

Ball D'Arc put up a big figure last time in a handicap but that race was very strongly-run and rather set up for him and I have concerns about him back in a smaller field which should be more suitable for Ballyoisin. He has to improve to take this but that seems more likely than not and his jumping has by and large been good so far. He wins lots of races and has had excuses when beaten and it seems worth taking a chance on him backing up the wow factor he's shown thus far.


Navan 15:10 - Sundae a Supa place bet

Despite only having had four runs over hurdles, Timeform already rate Sutton Place in the top 10 Irish hurdlers with a mark of 160p and he should win this if near the same form as last time. The place market is the interesting one, however. Renneti is utterly unreliable, tending to give little at the start and finish of his races, while De Plotting Shed was fourth in what was ultimately a four-horse race last time.

Consequently, Supasundae looks a bet to place. As is often the case, the horse that was the immediate victim of a race-winner is underrated in shoulder markets when they re-oppose; I've seen this called the 'Sizing John Theory' by Andy Gibson following that one's tendency to chase home Douvan. Supasundae is unlikely to beat Sutton Place here but seems the most likely to finish second and has two other positives in his favour along with the price; he was ridden too forcefully last time and the step up in trip will suit.


Navan 16:10 - Deep ground to suit Jetstream Jack

Anibale Fly should take this after winning a good race at Naas but in terms of a bet Jetstream Jack looks worth supporting in the place. The key to him seems to be really deep ground which he hasn't really had over fences; it was officially soft at Gowran last time but I suspect it was quicker than that. Outside of the favourite, these horses are rated to finish in a line with Jetstream Jack looking the overpriced one.


Recommended Bets:
1 Point Back Ballyoisin @ 3.211/5 or bigger in the Navan 14:40
2 Points Place Back Supasundae @ 2.47/5 or bigger in the Navan 15:10
1 Point Place Back Jetstream Jack @ 3.814/5 or bigger in the Navan 16:10

National Hunt Season P+L: +16.8 points

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