Alan Thompson is looking to Ireland today to see if he can make it a hat-trick of winning back-to-lay bets by taking on the odds on Forgotten Rules...
"All five starts Answered has run to 50% or lower than its Betfair starting price"
Forgotten Rules rightly heads the betting for today's Group 3 Coolmore Vintage Crop Stakes at 15.55 Navan but despite trading at odds-on there are no guarantees that he will be fully ready after seven months off.
Do not get me wrong, his claim is impressive - Dermot Weld's five-year-old Forgotton Rules has done nothing wrong in his career to date including beating Biographer in a Group 2 contest at Ascot last October. However, I prefer to take a chance with the second favourite Answered, he made a pleasing return to action drawing clear to win a listed race at Limerick last month. The winning margin of five-and-a-half lengths from Waltzing Matilda could actually have been more as their appeared plenty left in the tank, suggesting that today's extra furlong should pose no problems and another bold bid is expected.
All five starts Answered has run to 50% or lower than its Betfair starting price, suggesting that a back-to-lay option is a good way of playing this against the odds-on favourite. I will be backing him at 3.953/1 and looking to lay him back to recover my stake leaving a free bet at odds of 2.466/4.
Alan Thompson 2015 P/L
Staked: 4 Pts
Returned: 6.95 Pts
P/L: +2.95 Pts